Monday, November 16, 2009

Hockey's quarter pole

Sample size is always an issue when trying to determine whether a free agent is worthy of being added, especially in leagues when there's a cap on the number of transactions. Granted, lines and pairings can still be changed, but after 20 games, fantasy hockey owners should have reasonable data to make a good decision.

I'm in two 12-team leagues but since one is a dynasty format (contracts, minors) and the other a limited keeper (3 per year), it's rare when I'm picking up the same type of players. Lo and behold, I was able to add the same three players over the last week:

  • Tomas Fleischmann, LW, Capitals: Some might have shied away from this German because of Alexander Ovechkin's impending return, but this 25-year-old has high-end talent (2nd round pick, 2004). Conversly some might have been suckered by the 'news' that Ovie was going to be out 4-5 weeks; it turns out he was pulling the leg on a Yahoo! Sports reporter. Even with an impending return to the second line shouldn't dent his value; he should continue getting power-play time (maybe even with Ovie) and the Caps have a decent second-line center in Brendan Morrison.
  • Nicklas Bergfors, RW, Devils: Here's a Swede who's coming off a solid season in the American Hockey League and finally got a chance to skate on the first line. There's a big difference in a 22-year-old like Bergfors putting up 51 points in 66 AHL games and an over-the-hill, end-of-the-bench type. Bergfors, who was taken 23rd overall in the '04 draft, has produced while skating with Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, as well as on a makeshift third line last Saturday against Fleischmann's Caps.
  • Mason Raymond, LW, Canucks: This 23-year-old was thought to be a flash-in-the-pan because he drew first-line duty due to Daniel Sedin's injury. But even if Sedin returns late this week, Raymond should be a solid producer, thanks to the continuing emergence of Ryan Kesler at second-line center and an underrated Alexandre Burrows at right wing.

I'm hoping this trio can keep my good fortune going in hockey. I finally won for the first time in my non-dynasty league and, like in my win in my keeper league, ranked among the top half of teams in terms of points scored.

It was almost a perfect fantasy weekend, but my football team was victim of some tough matchups. There's nothing you can do it when your studs are facing stiff defenses and on the road, too (Ced Benson at Pittsburgh, though he left due to injury; Rashard Mendenhall vs. Bengals; Marion Barber at Green Bay, though his injured thumb hampered his play). All that added up to the fewest points scored this week.

More later this week about factoring matchups when it comes to adding free agents in football, especially after the end of the bye-week period.

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