Consider an offline draft

Now that my 17-day (yes, SEVENTEEN) draft is over, I feel I can blog about fantasy baseball again. With at least two owners possibly reading, I didn't want to expose my hand during the draft.

As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.

My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.

Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.

So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?

1. For starters, how many times have you uttered the phrase, "Draft day is the best day of the year." If so, why not take a day and extend it over two-plus weeks?
2. How many times have you felt rushed in making a pick? With roughly 8 hours between picks, there's plenty of time to research and readjust your draft list.
3. The deeper your draft extends into late March, the better your information will be. How many owners in early March felt good drafting Joe Nathan, only to have him injure his elbow and miss the 2010 season? Particularly if you're in a deep league (like my 10-team mixed league that rosters 33 players per team), the winners of the position, lineup and rotation battles will matter.

It'll be interesting to see whether we'll choose to draft offline next year if people are available for an online draft.

Fantasy baseball: Why I passed on Hanley at #2

The consensus No. 2 draft pick in fantasy baseball drafts is one-time Red Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez, right behind Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.

Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!

No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.

I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.

And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.

Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.

I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.

Fantasy baseball: Book-worthy

Rare are the books on fantasy (or rotisserie, to be old school) baseball that are worth buying because the perception is that they're out of date -- and this was before the Internet. In recent years, the surviving books concentrate more on the methodology of forecasting future performance.

I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.

The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.

As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.

The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.

Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.

Fantasy baseball: Magazine advice

It's difficult to walk into a bookstore these days without avoiding the dozen or so fantasy baseball magazine covers trying to tempt you into plopping down $8 or so for them. So what should factor in your decision to buy?

First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.

Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.

For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.

The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.

Draft advice

We're coming up on the final weekend of the NBA preseason, which means it's two big days for fantasy NBA drafts.

I won't attempt to pass any advice to you, hoop-wise, since I don't follow the league closely. What I can offer is draft advice.

I do consider myself an expert on drafting. I can hardly pass up an offer to do a draft; that's how I got into joining a fantasy hoops league two years ago. (I also tried getting KG, Pierce and Ray Allen on the same team, which didn't happen.)

Here are some tips, no matter which fantasy sport you might be drafting for:

• Know your league -- as in rules, scoring and owners. I always find it amazing when a owner comes out of a draft and says something to the effect of 'I didn't know that was a category' or 'I didn't know we needed 'X' number of 'Y' players at that position'. I mean, that should affect the valuation you put on players. For example, my fantasy football league has two flex spots in which a WR can fill both. Given that it's a slight PPR league (0.3 point per catch, instead of the standard 1), it pays to load up on receivers.
  
• Make a list of players you want. Don't be that guy holding up your draft because you're flipping through your fantasy mag or furiously Googling for news. Chances are your last-minute find won't pan out as well as the player that you should have researched beforehand. You don't want to miss on your first few picks; get those right. Making a list comes in handy late in the draft of a deep league (usually 12 or more owners).
  
• Be aware the way your draft applet lists available players. I've used the big fantasy sites like CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo!, and all of them list, by default, players according to their ranking, which probably won't help you, unless you're using a very vanilla, standard-like scoring system. You're likely to have a few owners who don't know the league rules/scoring that well and didn't do their research, so they're taking the proverbial 'best player available' -- according to your site's rankings. Fill up your draft queue with your draft targets, but don't take them too soon if they're not likely to be taken. In hockey, I was able to get Blues defenseman Erik Johnson late in my draft; he missed all of last season due to a preseason injury but is a former high first-rounder with upside.
  
• Keep track of your opponents' rosters. This sort of gets back to Point #1: know your owners and who their 'pets' might be. Be aware of what positions they've filled and what positions they might be going after.

And remember, this is fantasy sports. It's not life and death. If you want your favorite player or load up on guys on your favorite team, go for it.