Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Make your list (sort of) and check it twice

One thing that makes it easier while playing in a league with daily transactions is setting your lineup ahead of time. I usually set my hockey lineup for the entire week on Monday. Only last week, I didn't check my lineup after making a move after that.

Last week I put the Bruins' Dennis Wideman on the injured list. The problem was that change reset my lineup before my initial changes (thanks, CBS Sports) and left out a 24-point game from Niklas Backstrom (one goal allowed in a win), a 22-point game from Brad Boyes (three assists) and a 13-point game from Kyle Quincey. The loss of those 59 points would have made the difference in a 6.5-point loss.

That defeat, my third in a row, leaves me in 4th place out of 6 in my conference. At 5-6, I'm one game out of third place, which earns the last playoff spot. As this is a keeper league, a few more losses and I'll have to consider trading for the future instead of for the playoffs.

As for my other hockey league, I've won twice a row. I'm still 3-8 and still in last place, but am out of the last playoff spot by 170 points. The top six teams by record make the playoffs, with the seventh spot going to the remaining team with the most points (the top seed earns a first-round bye).

Goaltending is still a problem and my defensemen seemingly can't get hot at the same time, but my forwards are starting to come around. Daniel Sedin has been brilliant since coming back from injury, and guys like Patrick Kane, David Backes and old favorite Alexei Kovalev have been very good the last two weeks.

It's a full slate of games tonight, but the NHL is off on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Make sure to check those lineups for the rest of the week ... have a merry one.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Start up the hot stove

While most fantasy owners are focusing on their football, basketball and hockey teams, there's a select few who are thinking baseball.

One of the best things about being in a keeper baseball league is the activity that occurs in the offseason, even in the dead of winter. With four new owners in our 20-team league, there was a dispersal draft that started the last day of November. So for us returning owners, we were able to release players in November instead of waiting until in the spring. Trading has opened, and there are amendments on the table, most notably on balancing the hitting and pitching scoring and stat modifiers.

It should be said that this is a full keeper league that can sometimes be referred to as a 'sim' league, because it is very much a simulation of happens in real-life baseball. We owners have every player under contract and work within a luxury tax/salary cap system.

For example, I just executed a trade that could very well happen in real life. The deal was a simple one-for-one involving two minor leaguers who could break through in 2010. I dealt Cardinals prospects David Freese for Dodgers prospect Joshua Lindblom.

Freese's name might be vaguely familiar; he was arrested this week on driving under the influence. I was surprised an owner inquired about him; it turns out he was trying to trade for his upside of being in the middle of the St. Louis lineup. Last season the third baseman had an impressive .931 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in 227 minor-league at-bats, as well as an .837 OPS in 31 MLB at-bats (anything over .800 is considered very good). Freese will also turn 27 in April, which is the age that is considered to be the peak year for major leaguers.

So why did I deal him? I sensed an owner who coveted my player and was willing to trade a similarly good prospect. For me, that player was Josh Lindblom, a 6-5, 220-pound right-hander who is said to have a good shot at making the Dodgers as their No. 5 starter or a middle reliever. The 22-year-old had OK numbers as a starter at Double-A last year, but shined in the bullpen in the Triple-A, hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Like with stocks, you want to buy low and sell high while trading. Noah, one of the new owners, felt he was buying low on Freese. I feel like I'm buying low on Lindblom. As always, the proof will come in the numbers.

As for the Red Sox's offseason moves, I'll get to them when the dust appears to settle on Theo Epstein's grand plan. The team doesn't seem to be done remaking the roster yet.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Disappointment ... and relief

Like probably a great many of you, I'm on the outside looking into my fantasy football playoffs.

I was put out of my misery after the 1 o'clock games on Sunday, when my opponent's three RBs (A.D., Ryan Grant and Jamaal Charles) racked up an amazing 95.1 points. My guys rallied in the later games, so at least I finished with a respectable 131.1 points (my third-best week of the year), but it wasn't enough against James's 152.1.

Because this regular season has been my worst ever (6-7), I was happy just to make the final 8 (out of 12). It's been such an up-and-down season that I found myself at times hating fantasy football -- which happens even when I'm having a good season. The physical nature of football leads to so many injuries, which in turn leads to players sitting out or playing sparingly and backups taking on unsurprisingly prominent roles. That nullifies the logic and reasonable guesses into lineup decisions, and leads to a lot of frustration over three months.

So that's a part of me that will enjoy being simply a Patriots fan and not obsessing over checking my iPhone for updates on Sunday. If you're still in the playoffs, all you pretty much need is lineup advice; there's probably not much in the way of player pickups that you need. There's a part of me that wants to keep tabs on some guys and trends for next year, but that's what fantasy magazines are for.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Playoffs? Playoffs?!

That's right ... I'm in! Last week I was hoping to play spoiler against someone who was trying to get into the No. 8 and last playoff spot. With a 5-7 record, I held out little hope of keeping my streak of having never missed a fantasy football playoffs.

Lo and behold, I put up 142 points -- the most in my league's Week 13 -- and actually finished with the No. 7 position. A lot of luck came into play, as the No. 8 team crapped out and scored only 71, thereby giving me a 12-point advantage over him in the tiebreaker, as we were among four teams with 6-7 records.

So as topsy turvy as this season has been, we're starting off with a clean slate. As easy as it might be to rely on the tried-and-true adage of 'stick with what got you here', I refuse to give up on playing the matchups. So no more sticking with Marion Barber, he of the disappointing last month, and in comes free-agent pickup Quinton Ganther, the newly anointed starting Redskins' RB who has a nice matchup against a porous Raiders' run defense.

Out goes Kevin Walter, who couldn't capitalize on Owen Daniels' absence, and in comes another free agent pickup in Davone Bess, fresh off his impressive performance against the woeful Patriots' pass defense.

And as much as I should thank Jason Campbell and his 24-point performance last week, I'm turning to Joe Flacco as my QB2. Yes, Flacco has struggled mightily. But the Ravens are home against the Lions -- a matchup that I can't pass up, especially considering that Campbell will be facing an actually decent Raiders pass defense.

While I might have given up on some guys, I can't sit someone like Vincent Jackson, who has slipped to being the No. 11 WR in my league. My alternative is someone like Walter or Justin Fargas, and their upside isn't as great as even an average day for V-Jax. A big day from the Chargers wideout would go a long way toward making the semifinals. Let's keep our fingers crossed ...

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

A plug for "The League"

As a fantasy football owner who is in the male 25-44 demographic group, watching "The League" is a hoot. I can't wait to tune in Thursday at 10:30 p.m. on the FX Channel to watch the Season 1 finale, when the episode will center around their fantasy football championship week.

Culled from the show's web site, here's a synopsis of what the show is about:
"Set against the backdrop of a fantasy football league, The League, FX's new original comedy, is about friendship, marriage, parenting, and growing up ... or refusing to grow up. Fantasy football provides an outlet for good-natured competition and camaraderie between friends and colleagues, but that's not always the case. Deception, trickeration, one-upmanship and a win-at-all costs mentality are prevalent in the world of fantasy football and it's no different in The League. The emotional tentacles of fantasy football extend to personal relationships, marriages and the workplace, all fertile ground for comedy."

If you haven't checked out the show before, you can view the previous five episodes online. You don't even need to be a fantasy football geek to appreciate "The League. Even my wife can't watch an episode without laughing hysterically at least once.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Goalie pickups of the week

If you have to play two goalies per week, you might want to keep an eye on Brian Boucher. Another Brian (Elliott) could be a decent short-term pickup.

The Rhode Island native has the potential to take over as the Flyers' No. 1 goalie. He was signed in the offseason to serve as insurance if Ray Emery flamed out in his return to the NHL. Not only has Emery disappointed, but so hasn't virtually the entire Philly team, which was considered to be a Stanley Cup contender. Now a new coach (Peter Laviolette) is in town, and that could kick-start a talent-laden team that sits 12th of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference.

Reports that Emery has been trying to play through an injury -- and poorly, I might add -- opens the door for Boucher to take over. Boucher sports a 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage, albeit in only 7 out of the Flyers' 26 games. He's given up 3 goals in each of his last two games, but prior to that he had yielded only 5 goals in 4 games.

He's not an option in my keeper league, as the 32-year-old doesn't figure to be a full-time starter past this season -- even if he can capture the job in Philadelphia. But in my other 12-team league, he's starting for me this week, given the continued struggles of Tim Thomas and Steve Mason.

The Flyers have a favorable schedule, with the Canadiens, Islanders, Senators and Devils on top (the middle two games are at home). Those teams' rank in goals per game this year: 29th, 23rd, 14th and 20th. Boucher is slated to get that start tonight at Montreal; it'll be a good sign if Laviolette goes back to him the following night against the Isle.

As for Elliott, he should still draw the majority of the starts for the Senators with Pascal Leclaire still out.

Ottawa's schedule is a favorable one over the next two weeks. This week, the Sens face Montreal, Philadelphia (10th in goals per game) and Carolina (last).

Next Ottawa faces Toronto, Buffalo, New Jersey and Minnesota; those four teams neatly rank 18th, 19th, 20th and 21st in goals per game. Coach Cory Clouston would be wise to start Elliott against the Sabres and Wild; Elliott is 4-0 with a 2.18 GAA at home.

Friday, December 4, 2009

World Cup small talk for the casual fan

Now that the draw for one of the world's largest and most popular sporting spectacle is done, what do you -- the non-soccer fan -- need to know about the World Cup?

More people than you think care about this tournament. Basically anybody who speaks English with an accent or has an ethnic-sounding last name has some rooting interest; and if they're not a fan, you can bet someone close to them is.

Given that most readers aren't hard-core followers, here are some nuggets for the watercooler:

How did the U.S. fare? Two words: Great draw. England is in the same group, but we avoided tough 'name' teams with Algeria and Slovenia, both of whom had to win a two-leg playoff in order to get the 32-team World Cup finals. Winning the group could mean a nice path to the semifinals.

What about those cheaters? Ah yes, the French. A missed handball call allowed France to score a goal that vanquished the Irish in their playoffs. Bad karma did not prevent the French from getting a favorable draw, one that includes the weak host nation (South Africa).

What about the `Group of Death'? This is the term used to describe the most difficult group of four teams; there are eight in the tournament. The consensus is that Group G is this year's winner. Brazil, always a perennial tournament favorite and top-ranked team in the FIFA rankings, was drawn with a talented Portugal team and Ivory Coast, arguably the best African side. The third-place team in this group was a good bet to advance to the second round (the two teams in group play move on) in any other group.

For the serious soccer fan, there will be more analysis as the start of the tournament draws closer in June.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Is it time to sell low?

As the owner of Tim Thomas and Steve Mason, I'm one frustrated fantasy hockey owner. When your second- and fifth-round draft picks are flops after the first two months, it can explain a lot of your struggles.

Recently I had to evaluate how low I was on that duo when a fellow owner was looking for a goalie. I was trying to peddle Brian Elliott, who will be the Senators' starter after a freak injury to Pascal Leclaire. While I didn't expect Doug (who also owns Leclaire) to bite on trading John-Michael Liles, who just came back from an injury, straight up for Elliott, I didn't expect that he'd inquire about Thomas or S.Mason.

Our 12-team league scoring system has evolved over the last 15 years to the point where goalie losses are not penalized; at least we haven't eliminated goalies entirely (it was actually discussed, albeit briefly) or gone to starting only one. Not surprisingly goalies have been among league's leading scorers the last several years, and thus my draft strategy involving Thomas and S.Mason.

Understand that my team is mired in last place, both in record (1-7) and points scored. If I have any chance of getting into the playoffs (there is, after all, two-thirds of the season left), I'll need strong goaltending. So I decided to keep the upside of my goalies over improving my defense corps; Doug, to his credit, was willing to discuss Liles and Sergei Gonchar. Maybe if he could have included a decent goalie in the deal (Jon Quick is the other goalie on my roster), I would have considered the proposal further.

In general it's hard to sell low, with getting proper value being the most difficult thing to gauge. As I've posted previously, try to stick with your studs and give them a chance to come through. Here's hoping I'm right in this case.