The favorites to advance out of Group C had mixed results again after their latest friendlies over Memorial Day weekend, but this time it's the United States that emerged looking better.
The Americans' first half against Turkey was dismal, yet there was a lot to take away from Bob Bradley's second-half substitutions. Jose Torres was much more influential than Benny Feilhaber on the left side of midfield, as was Stuart Holden over Ricardo Clark in the center of midfield. Robbie Findley offered a spark up front and started the play that resulted in Jozy Altidore's goal (he should thank the Turkish keeper for a terrible decision to stray far off his line). Outside backs Jonathan Bornstein and Steve Cherundolo played better than Carlos Bocanegra and Jonathan Spector, offering more spark moving forward and defending the flank area better.
England looked pedestrian the following day against a World Cup-bound Japan side that was not the equal of Turkey, who failed to qualify. England's passing in midfield was atrocious, though the insertion of Steven Gerrard in a deep midfield role greatly improved that department. Wayne Rooney was forced to track back too deep to be much of a factor, and his two strike partners were not a factor. Theo Walcott's performance at right midfield was dire enough for him to be dropped by Fabio Capello, and Aaron Lennon looked out of place on the left. The first-team defense hardly dominated as they should have. Joe Hart continues to be in the most in-form England keeper, though it still seems unlikely he will start.
The USA still has a friendly left, on June 5 against Australia, and the most pressing matter is whether Bradley will give those second-half subs a more extended look.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Monday, May 31, 2010
Don't forget what you learned from the club season
Players on the 32 World Cup rosters are undergoing more scrutiny than at any point of the year, but people should not discard what they've done over 10 months with their clubs. Those of us who watch the players of their favorite clubs over 30-something matches that have a certain affinity for their players.
Evaluating such players with honesty, rather than homerism, will help you better judge their place and their country's chances. I'll start this exercise with Chelsea, my favorite club. The Blues are one of the biggest clubs in the world and have a bevy of players who are headed to South Africa.
France, besides drawing ire from much of the sporting world for that infamous hand ball against Ireland, was not showing well for much of the World Cup buildup until their lame-duck coach, Raymond Domenech, surprisingly switched formations. His 4-3-3 that puts forward Nicolas Anelka and left-sided midfielder Florent Malouda into positions where they thrived for Chelsea. I still don't fancy France getting past the second round, but they're lucky they're in a weak Group A that they will likely win.
Given that Portugal is supposedly relying on Deco to orchestrate in the center of the park and Ricardo Carvalho to be a bedrock in the center of defense, this does not bode well for Cristiano Ronaldo's side. Both players have been out of form with Chelsea, with Carvalho at least able to cite injury. Some solace can be found with Paulo Ferreira, who was solid but not spectacular at right back over the last month. Their FIFA ranking is high, but I see the Portuguese being the odd man out in the Group of Death. Which leads us to ...
Ivory Coast, who is powered by Didier Drogba, one of the top strikers in the world. Fellow forward Salomon Kalou had some productive games for Chelsea over the last two months, but at times showed his propensity for blowing easy chances. I see the Ivorians finishing second in Group G.
In Group D, Serbia is one of my darkhorse teams in this year's tournament, and Branislav Ivanovic is part of the reason. The right back can deputize as a central defender and offers a threat in the penalty area on set pieces. But it's the Serbs' commitment to attacking that has me stoked for their chances in Group D. I see them advancing out of the group. Speaking of Group D, two other sides have suffered devastating injuries to talismanic players.
Germany has lost captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury; his box-to-box play is irreplaceable. The Germans are famous for their tournament acumen, but Ballack's absence could deprive them of enough quality to make the semifinals. Ghana lost its captain, Michael Essien, due to a knee injury; it's a wonder Chelsea achieved so much this year without their holding midfielder. It's important to remember that Ghana made it to the African Nations Cup final without Essien, so they have proven they can achieve things without his influence. Still it'll be difficult to choose Ghana to advance over Germany.
Another CFC midfielder, John Obi Mikel, is injured and might not be able to play for his country, though Nigeria has included him in its final roster. Even if Mikel was healthy, Chelsea fans have to shudder to learn that the Super Eagles are likely to use him in an attacking midfield role. His sometimes shoddy passing as a holding midfielder is something we've put up with; I can't imagine a team relying on Mikel to unlock defenses and create. I am not tipping Nigeria to advance out of Group B.
Slovakia has a Chelsea player whom many people forget is registered with the club: Miroslav Stoch. The left-sided attacking player did well on loan with FC Twente in Holland and was important to the Slovaks' qualifying campaign. Slovakia stands a good chance of advancing out of Group F; the team has an easier opener than Paraguay before they meet in the second group game.
Last, but not least is England. Deposed captain John Terry has not looked like the rock he once was before his infidelity scandal. Frank Lampard missed a penalty against Japan, and Chelsea fans won't forget his PK misses against Manchester City and Portsmouth, the latter nearly costing the team the FA Cup final. The midfielder occupies a different role with the national team and has not been able to replicate his same goal-scoring form.
Ashley Cole is clearly the country's best left back, but it remains whether he is fully recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him for much of this calendar year. Cole also is not given as much license to venture as deep into the attacking third as he does with Chelsea. Joe Cole's role under coach Fabio Capello is still unclear, but it seems the midfielder will likely win a spot on the bench given his performance as a reserve against Japan. I see England topping Group C, with a run into semifinals being realistic.
I've included Joe Cole in this discussion, but will not delve into players who stand no chance of going to South Africa like Hilario (Portugal), Alex (Brazil), etc.
Now what about your favorite players and club teams? How do their national teams stand?
Evaluating such players with honesty, rather than homerism, will help you better judge their place and their country's chances. I'll start this exercise with Chelsea, my favorite club. The Blues are one of the biggest clubs in the world and have a bevy of players who are headed to South Africa.
France, besides drawing ire from much of the sporting world for that infamous hand ball against Ireland, was not showing well for much of the World Cup buildup until their lame-duck coach, Raymond Domenech, surprisingly switched formations. His 4-3-3 that puts forward Nicolas Anelka and left-sided midfielder Florent Malouda into positions where they thrived for Chelsea. I still don't fancy France getting past the second round, but they're lucky they're in a weak Group A that they will likely win.
Given that Portugal is supposedly relying on Deco to orchestrate in the center of the park and Ricardo Carvalho to be a bedrock in the center of defense, this does not bode well for Cristiano Ronaldo's side. Both players have been out of form with Chelsea, with Carvalho at least able to cite injury. Some solace can be found with Paulo Ferreira, who was solid but not spectacular at right back over the last month. Their FIFA ranking is high, but I see the Portuguese being the odd man out in the Group of Death. Which leads us to ...
Ivory Coast, who is powered by Didier Drogba, one of the top strikers in the world. Fellow forward Salomon Kalou had some productive games for Chelsea over the last two months, but at times showed his propensity for blowing easy chances. I see the Ivorians finishing second in Group G.
In Group D, Serbia is one of my darkhorse teams in this year's tournament, and Branislav Ivanovic is part of the reason. The right back can deputize as a central defender and offers a threat in the penalty area on set pieces. But it's the Serbs' commitment to attacking that has me stoked for their chances in Group D. I see them advancing out of the group. Speaking of Group D, two other sides have suffered devastating injuries to talismanic players.
Germany has lost captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury; his box-to-box play is irreplaceable. The Germans are famous for their tournament acumen, but Ballack's absence could deprive them of enough quality to make the semifinals. Ghana lost its captain, Michael Essien, due to a knee injury; it's a wonder Chelsea achieved so much this year without their holding midfielder. It's important to remember that Ghana made it to the African Nations Cup final without Essien, so they have proven they can achieve things without his influence. Still it'll be difficult to choose Ghana to advance over Germany.
Another CFC midfielder, John Obi Mikel, is injured and might not be able to play for his country, though Nigeria has included him in its final roster. Even if Mikel was healthy, Chelsea fans have to shudder to learn that the Super Eagles are likely to use him in an attacking midfield role. His sometimes shoddy passing as a holding midfielder is something we've put up with; I can't imagine a team relying on Mikel to unlock defenses and create. I am not tipping Nigeria to advance out of Group B.
Slovakia has a Chelsea player whom many people forget is registered with the club: Miroslav Stoch. The left-sided attacking player did well on loan with FC Twente in Holland and was important to the Slovaks' qualifying campaign. Slovakia stands a good chance of advancing out of Group F; the team has an easier opener than Paraguay before they meet in the second group game.
Last, but not least is England. Deposed captain John Terry has not looked like the rock he once was before his infidelity scandal. Frank Lampard missed a penalty against Japan, and Chelsea fans won't forget his PK misses against Manchester City and Portsmouth, the latter nearly costing the team the FA Cup final. The midfielder occupies a different role with the national team and has not been able to replicate his same goal-scoring form.
Ashley Cole is clearly the country's best left back, but it remains whether he is fully recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him for much of this calendar year. Cole also is not given as much license to venture as deep into the attacking third as he does with Chelsea. Joe Cole's role under coach Fabio Capello is still unclear, but it seems the midfielder will likely win a spot on the bench given his performance as a reserve against Japan. I see England topping Group C, with a run into semifinals being realistic.
I've included Joe Cole in this discussion, but will not delve into players who stand no chance of going to South Africa like Hilario (Portugal), Alex (Brazil), etc.
Now what about your favorite players and club teams? How do their national teams stand?
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Scouting USA and England after their first friendly
With the USA and England both not featuring their full sides in their respective friendlies against the Czech Republic and Mexico this week, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions before their June 12 first-round match in the World Cup.
The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.
The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.
Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.
On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.
Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.
The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.
The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.
Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.
On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.
Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Fantasy fallout from the biggest choke job in NHL history
So the unbelievable has happened ... the Boston Bruins blew a 3-0 lead in a best-of-7 series AND a 3-0 lead in Game 7 (on home ice, to boot).
Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.
At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.
Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.
OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.
Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.
When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.
Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).
Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).
Let's look at some of the more dubious players.
Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).
Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.
Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.
In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.
Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.
Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.
At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.
Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.
OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.
Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.
When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.
Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).
Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).
Let's look at some of the more dubious players.
Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).
Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.
Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.
In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.
Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Think about your league's payout
Most fantasy baseball leagues that play in a head-to-head format pay out the same way: the majority of the pot goes to the postseason champion and the losing finalist getting half that amount. But is that the fairest way toward paying out?
Given that we're only in the third week of the season, consider whether it's too late to discuss this with your commissioner and fellow owners. As much as many of us play for the thrill of the competition, it is nice to get a proper chunk of change if you do well.
My biggest problem with the traditional payoff is that it discounts too much of the regular season. Everybody plays for 21 weeks, yet your league champion can simply be the best playoff team in September. On the flip side the overemphasis on the playoffs can lead to dominant teams falling victim to a fluke -- which has happened to be twice in fantasy hockey.
It's one thing to try to mirror how the World Series champ is decided, but one can only go so far in making fantasy like reality. And the reality is that there are generally 2-4 owners who have managed well enough to earn a good chunk of change -- and we're not talking about your traditional third-place owner merely making his money back or just earning a little more than that.
I was able to pitch to my commish and fellow owners that a payoff that balanced the two seasons was the best route. So in my daily 10-team non-keeper league, the regular-season wins/loss champion gets 25%, the regular-season points champion gets 25% and the postseason champion gets the remaining 50%.
Given the amount of luck involved in matchups, paying out to the points champion rewards the owner who is snake bitten by close losses and/or bad luck. I like to say that the only thing us owners can control is our lineup and therefore our points scored. Things like the opponent and points against are factors we cannot control.
Since introducing the 25/25/50 payout to my leagues, I haven't heard a vociferous outcry against it. That's because it's the fairest way to monetarily reward the best owners. It should be noted that only once has an owner won all three pots -- now that's a truly dominant team.
Given that we're only in the third week of the season, consider whether it's too late to discuss this with your commissioner and fellow owners. As much as many of us play for the thrill of the competition, it is nice to get a proper chunk of change if you do well.
My biggest problem with the traditional payoff is that it discounts too much of the regular season. Everybody plays for 21 weeks, yet your league champion can simply be the best playoff team in September. On the flip side the overemphasis on the playoffs can lead to dominant teams falling victim to a fluke -- which has happened to be twice in fantasy hockey.
It's one thing to try to mirror how the World Series champ is decided, but one can only go so far in making fantasy like reality. And the reality is that there are generally 2-4 owners who have managed well enough to earn a good chunk of change -- and we're not talking about your traditional third-place owner merely making his money back or just earning a little more than that.
I was able to pitch to my commish and fellow owners that a payoff that balanced the two seasons was the best route. So in my daily 10-team non-keeper league, the regular-season wins/loss champion gets 25%, the regular-season points champion gets 25% and the postseason champion gets the remaining 50%.
Given the amount of luck involved in matchups, paying out to the points champion rewards the owner who is snake bitten by close losses and/or bad luck. I like to say that the only thing us owners can control is our lineup and therefore our points scored. Things like the opponent and points against are factors we cannot control.
Since introducing the 25/25/50 payout to my leagues, I haven't heard a vociferous outcry against it. That's because it's the fairest way to monetarily reward the best owners. It should be noted that only once has an owner won all three pots -- now that's a truly dominant team.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Consider an offline draft
Now that my 17-day (yes, SEVENTEEN) draft is over, I feel I can blog about fantasy baseball again. With at least two owners possibly reading, I didn't want to expose my hand during the draft.
As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.
My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.
Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.
So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?
As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.
My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.
Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.
So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?
- For starters, how many times have you uttered the phrase, "Draft day is the best day of the year." If so, why not take a day and extend it over two-plus weeks?
- How many times have you felt rushed in making a pick? With roughly 8 hours between picks, there's plenty of time to research and readjust your draft list.
- The deeper your draft extends into late March, the better your information will be. How many owners in early March felt good drafting Joe Nathan, only to have him injure his elbow and miss the 2010 season? Particularly if you're in a deep league (like my 10-team mixed league that rosters 33 players per team), the winners of the position, lineup and rotation battles will matter.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Fantasy hockey: Better luck next year
Week 22 of the fantasy hockey season is upon us, and I'm sitting on the proverbial sidelines in both my leagues. It's the first time I've missed the playoffs, so it's an odd feeling. In a way, it's just as well since I've devoted most of my free time researching for my ongoing offline baseball draft.
Now I can sit back and root for my Bruins and Rangers, without much fantasy implication at all. Sure, one of my leagues is a keeper but there's plenty of time to look back at what I'll miss over the last dozen or so regular-season games. And I don't pay much mind to playoff stats; they usually don't indicate enough significance on next season.
Now I can sit back and root for my Bruins and Rangers, without much fantasy implication at all. Sure, one of my leagues is a keeper but there's plenty of time to look back at what I'll miss over the last dozen or so regular-season games. And I don't pay much mind to playoff stats; they usually don't indicate enough significance on next season.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Fantasy hockey: Trade impact
Since the NHL trading deadline last week didn't produce any big moves, this is a good time to evaluate the spate of blockbuster trades that nearly two months ago. Oddly enough most of the players involved had connections to my two teams. And now that I've given them time to play nearly a dozen games, this is a good time to check in on their fantasy values:
- Dion Phaneuf (Flames to Maple Leafs): Thumbs down. He went from one of the best teams in the Western Conference to one of the worst in the Eastern. Even though he'll be logging more minutes, particularly on the power play, Phaneuf will be surrounded by a lesser cast of players. Two assists and a minus-1 in 11 games doesn't leave me hopeful for someone whom I extended to a three-year contract in the offseason.
- Matt Stajan (Maple Leafs to Flames): The principal player to Calgary in the above deal, Stajan nearly got added to both my keeper and non-keeper teams due to possible first-line time with Jarome Iginla. Instead the centerman has continued to produce at his recent levels, with his 8 points in 12 Flames games right in line with his pace with the Leafs the last season and a half. The same is true for Jason Blake, whom Toronto flipped to Anaheim.
- Olli Jokinen (Flames to Rangers): I don't own the centerman, but his acquisition casted a pall on the value of Brandon Dubinsky, whom I had just traded for in my dynasty league. The fear was that Jokinen would center the first line, bumping Dubs to the second. Instead coach John Tortorella kept Dubs next to star winger Marian Gaborik and tried to have Jokinen form a legitimate second line that the Rangers have been lacking. Jokinen has responded with a 2-7-9 pace in 11 games that is the best in three seasons.
- Ilya Kovalchuk (Thrashers to Devils): As one of the owners of the left wing, I hoped the Russian would have landed in a more offensive environment. He's produced 8 points in 10 games, but that's still below his point-per-game pace over his career. The Devils are still shuffling their lines, with Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner as the current solutions.
- Niclas Bergfors (Devils to Thrashers): I was very high on the 22-year-old in 2009, but the new year was not kind to the Swede as his minutes and production diminished. It turned out getting out of Jacques Lemaire's doghouse was the trick, as Bergfors has produced a 6-2-8 in 11 games. An unexpected beneficiary has been Thrashers wing Bryan Little, who clicked with Bergfors and could be line for more minutes.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Fantasy baseball: Why I passed on Hanley at #2
The consensus No. 2 draft pick in fantasy baseball drafts is one-time Red Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez, right behind Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.
Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!
No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.
I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.
And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.
Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.
I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.
Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!
No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.
I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.
And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.
Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.
I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Fantasy baseball: Book-worthy
Rare are the books on fantasy (or rotisserie, to be old school) baseball that are worth buying because the perception is that they're out of date -- and this was before the Internet. In recent years, the surviving books concentrate more on the methodology of forecasting future performance.
I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.
The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.
As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.
The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.
Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.
I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.
The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.
As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.
The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.
Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Fantasy baseball: Magazine advice
It's difficult to walk into a bookstore these days without avoiding the dozen or so fantasy baseball magazine covers trying to tempt you into plopping down $8 or so for them. So what should factor in your decision to buy?
First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.
Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.
For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.
The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.
First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.
Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.
For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.
The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Fantasy hockey: Back to the grind
After an unprecedented two-week midseason break, I'm ready for some NHL games again. Yes, the Olympics produced some great action, but alas there are no fantasy points to be had.
Brian Rafalski owners will hope the Red Wings defenseman will show the same goal-scoring touch as he did in Vancouver. Normally a reliable double-digit goal-scorer, the 36-year-old has only 4 goals in 57 games -- the same number he had in 6 Olympic games for the United States.
Owners of Wings and Avalanche players who played in the Olympics will be at a disadvantage tonight, as the two teams square off in the first post-break game. There's no reliable evidence to suggest that Olympians suffer from having to play up to 6 intense games in a 14-day period, so you shouldn't consider benching your top players who might have participated. If you've got to choose between an Olympian and a non-Olympian, you might want to consider the player who had a two-week rest -- particularly those who might have been snubbed (Martin St. Louis and his ilk) and might have a little more fire to get back on the ice.
For most leagues, there are only two weeks left in most regular seasons, with the last 4 weeks devoted to the fantasy playoffs. The next big date to mark on your calendar Wednesday's trade deadline at 3 p.m.; may any of your swapped players land in better situations.
Next we might take a look at some of the principals in the flurry of blockbuster trades, now that they've had 5 or so games with the new teams.
Brian Rafalski owners will hope the Red Wings defenseman will show the same goal-scoring touch as he did in Vancouver. Normally a reliable double-digit goal-scorer, the 36-year-old has only 4 goals in 57 games -- the same number he had in 6 Olympic games for the United States.
Owners of Wings and Avalanche players who played in the Olympics will be at a disadvantage tonight, as the two teams square off in the first post-break game. There's no reliable evidence to suggest that Olympians suffer from having to play up to 6 intense games in a 14-day period, so you shouldn't consider benching your top players who might have participated. If you've got to choose between an Olympian and a non-Olympian, you might want to consider the player who had a two-week rest -- particularly those who might have been snubbed (Martin St. Louis and his ilk) and might have a little more fire to get back on the ice.
For most leagues, there are only two weeks left in most regular seasons, with the last 4 weeks devoted to the fantasy playoffs. The next big date to mark on your calendar Wednesday's trade deadline at 3 p.m.; may any of your swapped players land in better situations.
Next we might take a look at some of the principals in the flurry of blockbuster trades, now that they've had 5 or so games with the new teams.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Fantasy hockey: Don't stop checking
I might be in rebuilding mode when it comes to my dynasty league and concentrating on picking up youngsters, but never can a fantasy owner pass up a bargain.
In this case, that'd be Sami Salo. The Canucks defenseman was on the waiver wire when he came back from a groin injury that had sidelined him for a week. He averaged nearly 25 minutes in three games, including over 3 minutes of power play time. The 35-year-old has flown a little under the fantasy radars for years, mostly because he's had the potential tag on him for so long due to his big booming shot and not produced as desired. But he was 2-5-7 in 8 January games with a plus-6 for the No. 3 team in the Western Conference.
I was able to add another player, one whom I had teased about two posts ago: Tyler Bozak. The 23-year-old was a prized free agent after starring at the University of Denver for two years. The Maple Leafs won the race for his signature and gave him an extended look in January, where he was a 1-4-5 in 10 games that month. The thing that was encouraging about Bozak was that he was given a lot of power-play time. Now he's centering Phil Kessel after the trade of Matt Stajan to the Flames, and he's promptly responded with a line of 1-3-4 in 3 February games, including back-to-back ones against the stingy Devils. He's also been averaging a healthy 19 minutes of ice time.
I've got one more player I'd like to stash before his value might heat up in the offseason, but I've got to find another player on my roster that I can afford to buy out.
In this case, that'd be Sami Salo. The Canucks defenseman was on the waiver wire when he came back from a groin injury that had sidelined him for a week. He averaged nearly 25 minutes in three games, including over 3 minutes of power play time. The 35-year-old has flown a little under the fantasy radars for years, mostly because he's had the potential tag on him for so long due to his big booming shot and not produced as desired. But he was 2-5-7 in 8 January games with a plus-6 for the No. 3 team in the Western Conference.
I was able to add another player, one whom I had teased about two posts ago: Tyler Bozak. The 23-year-old was a prized free agent after starring at the University of Denver for two years. The Maple Leafs won the race for his signature and gave him an extended look in January, where he was a 1-4-5 in 10 games that month. The thing that was encouraging about Bozak was that he was given a lot of power-play time. Now he's centering Phil Kessel after the trade of Matt Stajan to the Flames, and he's promptly responded with a line of 1-3-4 in 3 February games, including back-to-back ones against the stingy Devils. He's also been averaging a healthy 19 minutes of ice time.
I've got one more player I'd like to stash before his value might heat up in the offseason, but I've got to find another player on my roster that I can afford to buy out.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Fantasy baseball: Let the bidding begin
The first of February has come, and that means the start of free agency bidding in my dynasty baseball league.
Even though I've got a pretty full roster that I could start the season with if needed, it's still fun to check our message board to see the bidding process. It's done, auction-style, with winning bids needing to stand for a full 7 days (we do have provisions for bids done toward the end of the bidding process and that can't stand for the 168 hours).
It can be nerve-racking to see whether any of the other 19 owners have decided to top your bid. I found it's best to avoid topping a bid right away -- especially if you know the other owner is online. That leads to confrontation, and a lot of times owners will bid right back. Getting into a bidding war most likely will drive up the price on a player artificially too high -- much to the delight of the other 17 or 18 owners. Given that we work with a payroll system with luxury tax, overspending $1 million or two can be costly.
It's tough to find good values in free agency bidding. I'll likely wait toward the end of the period, which ends March 22. Once the big players are rostered and there are fewer roster spots to fill, bargains will begin to emerge.
Even though I've got a pretty full roster that I could start the season with if needed, it's still fun to check our message board to see the bidding process. It's done, auction-style, with winning bids needing to stand for a full 7 days (we do have provisions for bids done toward the end of the bidding process and that can't stand for the 168 hours).
It can be nerve-racking to see whether any of the other 19 owners have decided to top your bid. I found it's best to avoid topping a bid right away -- especially if you know the other owner is online. That leads to confrontation, and a lot of times owners will bid right back. Getting into a bidding war most likely will drive up the price on a player artificially too high -- much to the delight of the other 17 or 18 owners. Given that we work with a payroll system with luxury tax, overspending $1 million or two can be costly.
It's tough to find good values in free agency bidding. I'll likely wait toward the end of the period, which ends March 22. Once the big players are rostered and there are fewer roster spots to fill, bargains will begin to emerge.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Fantasy hockey: Young talent
The transformation of my dynasty league team over the weekend was mostly a success. I added three players, missing out on my top choice. These guys should probably be on a watch list for non-keeper leagues:
Faced with a salary cap, I might not be able to sign more players before season's end, since adding means buying out some veterans. Once I'm done adding, I'll disclose my full watch list.
- Patric Hornqvist, F, Predators: He's skating on a scoring line and getting time on the first power-play unit. He didn't show much in his rookie season last year, but the 22-year-old showed he could score as a junior in his native Sweden, breaking Peter Forsberg's record for 19-year-olds. I got outbid on him in our weekly Monday morning auction.
- Martin Hanzal, F, Coyotes: This 22-year-old has thrived skating on an all-former Czechoslovakia line, with Petr Prucha and Radim Vrbata. He's a 6-5, 210-pound center who was a former first-round pick in 2005, which speaks to his upside. It's encouraging that Hanzal has shown good defensive awareness; he's plus-4 with 5 assists in his last 6 games.
- Josh Bailey, F, Islanders: This 19-year-old was the 9th overall pick in 2008 and is skating with two other outstanding youngsters: John Tavares and Kyle Okposo. He does however play on a poor Islanders team, so struggles are to be expected. Bailey can play on the left, though right now he's centering.
- Cody Franson, D, Predators: Nashville has a terrific track record of drafting and developing blue liners, and it appears this 22-year-old is destined to be a top-four defenseman. He's a 6-4, 205-pounder who gets power-play time despite skating on the third pairing. Franson scored 88 points in 152 AHL games, which indicates he could be a respectable NHL D-man.
Faced with a salary cap, I might not be able to sign more players before season's end, since adding means buying out some veterans. Once I'm done adding, I'll disclose my full watch list.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Next year is now
In the third year of my dynasty hockey league, I found out what it felt like to really look ahead to next year. In the last two years, I've been trying to strengthen my roster for the postseason. I made the final twice, only to lose.
This year, my team ranked 4th out of 6 in my conference when the top 3 make the playoffs. At 7-8 and one game behind the third-place team, I had to try to forecast how the remainder of the season would turn out. Given that the top two point-scoring teams are in my conference, the chances of representing the Campbell in the final looked remote.
Fortunately for me, I had three players on the last year of their two-year contracts who would be attractive to teams trying to make a push. The players in question -- Mikko Koivu, Christian Ehrhoff and Kyle Quincey -- were at below-market prices, but would be costly to re-sign, even with a hometown discount in free agency.
My goal was to acquire good, young talent and position myself for a playoff run next year. I was able to land both my targets: Brandon Dubinsky (the subject of my first very post here) and David Backes. I took on a bloated contract in Slava Kozlov, whom I will buy out, in order to make the Dubinsky deal work, but I got two youngsters at very reasonable salaries for next year.
Now the next task is to buy out more bad contracts and add more young players. Our weekly waivers run Monday, so I'll report on players whom I hopefully added and others on my radar screen.
This year, my team ranked 4th out of 6 in my conference when the top 3 make the playoffs. At 7-8 and one game behind the third-place team, I had to try to forecast how the remainder of the season would turn out. Given that the top two point-scoring teams are in my conference, the chances of representing the Campbell in the final looked remote.
Fortunately for me, I had three players on the last year of their two-year contracts who would be attractive to teams trying to make a push. The players in question -- Mikko Koivu, Christian Ehrhoff and Kyle Quincey -- were at below-market prices, but would be costly to re-sign, even with a hometown discount in free agency.
My goal was to acquire good, young talent and position myself for a playoff run next year. I was able to land both my targets: Brandon Dubinsky (the subject of my first very post here) and David Backes. I took on a bloated contract in Slava Kozlov, whom I will buy out, in order to make the Dubinsky deal work, but I got two youngsters at very reasonable salaries for next year.
Now the next task is to buy out more bad contracts and add more young players. Our weekly waivers run Monday, so I'll report on players whom I hopefully added and others on my radar screen.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Playing out the string
For the first time since the Bare Naked Hockey League (the one with my high school buddies from Dracut) went to a head-to-head/playoff format, I'll miss the postseason. With six weeks left to our regular season, I'm left playing spoiler. Even though I'm last out of 12 teams, I thought I had a chance at the 7th and last playoff position, but then I remembered that's based on points scored and not record (which is the basis of the top six spots).
As far as looking to next year, we're allowed to keep up to two players for the following season and there's not much suspense there. I'll likely keep Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar, who are the #5 and #9 forwards in our scoring system.
Also in contention are Shea Weber, Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk. Weber warrants serious consideration since he is my top defenseman. He checks in as the No. 10, and his 246 points is 4 ahead of Datsyuk, my disappointing first-round pick, and 24 behind Sedin, my #4 skater.
My Achilles' heel this season was definitely my goaltending. Steve Mason sunk me as the #33 goalie this season as my fifth-round pick, while Tim Thomas, my third-round draft pick, has underperformed as the #17 goalie. Jon Quick, my reserve-round goalie, ranks 10th at the position, but hasn't proven himself to the point where he'd be in keeper territory (a la Brodeur or a Luongo).
I'll have an update on my dynasty league, including the breakdown of a trade.
As far as looking to next year, we're allowed to keep up to two players for the following season and there's not much suspense there. I'll likely keep Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar, who are the #5 and #9 forwards in our scoring system.
Also in contention are Shea Weber, Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk. Weber warrants serious consideration since he is my top defenseman. He checks in as the No. 10, and his 246 points is 4 ahead of Datsyuk, my disappointing first-round pick, and 24 behind Sedin, my #4 skater.
My Achilles' heel this season was definitely my goaltending. Steve Mason sunk me as the #33 goalie this season as my fifth-round pick, while Tim Thomas, my third-round draft pick, has underperformed as the #17 goalie. Jon Quick, my reserve-round goalie, ranks 10th at the position, but hasn't proven himself to the point where he'd be in keeper territory (a la Brodeur or a Luongo).
I'll have an update on my dynasty league, including the breakdown of a trade.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Fantasy pets
The term 'fantasy pet' is used to describe fantasy owners' favorite players who always seem to end up on their rosters.
For me in hockey, that player has always been Alexei Kovalev. As a Rangers fan, I fell in love with his high-end talent. Even as he frustratingly showed only flashes of brilliance, I stuck with his potential. I likened my affection for him with my friend Adam's stubborn faith in Oliver Perez, an underachieving pitcher: we stick with these players because we see a little bit of ourselves in them. Their ability raises people's expectations, yet it's difficult to reach that high level of consistency.
I was rewarded with some fantastic seasons from Kovalev's time with the Penguins and later the Canadiens. For the record, Kovy has scored just over a point per game in nearly 1,200 NHL games in a 16-year career.
In my non-keeper league this year, however, I finally cut bait on Kovalev. At 4-10 and in last place of a 12-team league, I had to give up potential for production. It appears unlikely that Kovalev will be able to turn up his production (29 points in 44 games), considering the Senators' injuries to the likes of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek.
On the other hand, I've rostered Milan Lucic on my keeper league. The tough guy's offensive upside is limited (he'll probably put up 50-something points in a career year), but I simply love watching him play. I decided that I needed him on my team because if I was going to root for him in real life, I might as well try to get something out of him, fantasy-wise.
Conversely, there's such a thing as fantasy hate. For years I tried to avoid rostering Canadiens -- with Kovalev being the exception. As a Red Sox fan, I've tried to avoid Yankees, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Especially in a shallow player pool like my AL-only auction league, over the years I couldn't pass up bargain prices on Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams, among the most notable.
But one of the great things about fantasy sports that it helps break down barriers. It's easy for the non-fantasy fan to hate, but fantasy is about performance. And if a Canadien or a Yankee can help me win a title or finish in the money, welcome!
For me in hockey, that player has always been Alexei Kovalev. As a Rangers fan, I fell in love with his high-end talent. Even as he frustratingly showed only flashes of brilliance, I stuck with his potential. I likened my affection for him with my friend Adam's stubborn faith in Oliver Perez, an underachieving pitcher: we stick with these players because we see a little bit of ourselves in them. Their ability raises people's expectations, yet it's difficult to reach that high level of consistency.
I was rewarded with some fantastic seasons from Kovalev's time with the Penguins and later the Canadiens. For the record, Kovy has scored just over a point per game in nearly 1,200 NHL games in a 16-year career.
In my non-keeper league this year, however, I finally cut bait on Kovalev. At 4-10 and in last place of a 12-team league, I had to give up potential for production. It appears unlikely that Kovalev will be able to turn up his production (29 points in 44 games), considering the Senators' injuries to the likes of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek.
On the other hand, I've rostered Milan Lucic on my keeper league. The tough guy's offensive upside is limited (he'll probably put up 50-something points in a career year), but I simply love watching him play. I decided that I needed him on my team because if I was going to root for him in real life, I might as well try to get something out of him, fantasy-wise.
Conversely, there's such a thing as fantasy hate. For years I tried to avoid rostering Canadiens -- with Kovalev being the exception. As a Red Sox fan, I've tried to avoid Yankees, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Especially in a shallow player pool like my AL-only auction league, over the years I couldn't pass up bargain prices on Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams, among the most notable.
But one of the great things about fantasy sports that it helps break down barriers. It's easy for the non-fantasy fan to hate, but fantasy is about performance. And if a Canadien or a Yankee can help me win a title or finish in the money, welcome!
Monday, January 4, 2010
New year
I've never been one to make New Year's resolutions; why wait for a change in the calendar in order to effect change? And certainly the way my fantasy hockey seasons have gone, I could use a change.
Instead, I'm taking the opportunity to write about how thankful I am for the role that fantasy sports plays in my life. Namely, friendships. There are a number of 'fantasy' friends whom I've never met in person, but whom I'd be more comfortable around than other guys I've known for years. It's helped strengthened the bond with my best friend, Bill. It's helped me stay connected with my high school friends, as difficult as it may be to do with so many years and miles between us.
In a busy, demanding life that involves raising my two children, I have little time for hobbies. Fantasy sports has always been mine. I can still remember tracking my hockey team after the death of my grandmother in 1995 -- it was the one 'normal' thing that helped me from falling apart. And after my dad passed away unexpectedly a little more than two years ago, checking my player updates in baseball and football was among the little things that helped me find a sense of normalcy in the terrible aftermath.
So before I start getting really sappy, I'll paraphrasing one of my favorite songs off the Glee Cast albums (shameless plug) and say my life would suck without you.
Instead, I'm taking the opportunity to write about how thankful I am for the role that fantasy sports plays in my life. Namely, friendships. There are a number of 'fantasy' friends whom I've never met in person, but whom I'd be more comfortable around than other guys I've known for years. It's helped strengthened the bond with my best friend, Bill. It's helped me stay connected with my high school friends, as difficult as it may be to do with so many years and miles between us.
In a busy, demanding life that involves raising my two children, I have little time for hobbies. Fantasy sports has always been mine. I can still remember tracking my hockey team after the death of my grandmother in 1995 -- it was the one 'normal' thing that helped me from falling apart. And after my dad passed away unexpectedly a little more than two years ago, checking my player updates in baseball and football was among the little things that helped me find a sense of normalcy in the terrible aftermath.
So before I start getting really sappy, I'll paraphrasing one of my favorite songs off the Glee Cast albums (shameless plug) and say my life would suck without you.
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