Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving scores

Final scores, with my picks in bold:

Abington 20, Whitman-Hanson 0

Archbishop Williams 14, Cardinal Spellman 10: One game I'm happy to lose. Little-known fact: Cardinals coach Ron St. George's daughter, Shivonne, helped lead Archies to a state hoop title.

BC High 28, Catholic Memorial 17: Xaverian won, so there went the Eagles' chances for a share of the Catholic Conference.

Braintree 10, Milton 7

Bridgewater-Raynham 29, Randolph 7: Here's a suggestion: the Blue Devils should play nearby Holbrook/Avon on Thanksgiving ... now that'd be a competitive game for both.

Bristol-Plymouth 20, Blue Hills 6

Duxbury 17, Marshfield 7: Gee, the Rams have problems stopping a team in a spread formation ... again.

East Bridgewater 28, Rockland 7: Justin DeAndrade did look good in the one game I saw him.

Hanover 37, Norwell 22: Too much Brett Wheeler. Norwell's Achilles' heel was slowing down big-play backs.

Hingham 30, Scituate 7: Those Harbormen play some tough 'D' under their coordinator, WNEC Athletic Hall of Famer Brian Kelliher.

Hull 15, Cohasset 7: Good for coach Jerry McGrath. Dan Shea was one of the better players I saw in the South Shore League this year.

North Quincy 21, Quincy 6: Finally, the streak is over. Nice job by coordinator Dom Barbuto's defense.

Plymouth South 14, Plymouth North 12

Silver Lake 15, Pembroke 0

Southeastern 14, South Shore Votech 8

Walpole 37, Weymouth 18: Too much Ryan Izzo.

I'm glad I wasn't in an office pool this year; surely 8-8 would not have won.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Thanksgiving football

For the last several years, the sports department has had an office pick'em to help pass the time during our deadline-crazed Friday nights. While I won my fair share of Friday Night Frenzys, I never won the one for the Thanksgiving games. Let's see how I fare in forecasting tomorrow's games (winners in bold):

Archbishop Williams at Cardinal Spellman: I'd love to go with Bill Kinsherf's team, but Archies isn't trending the right way. The Bishops are 0-4 in league play, while the Cardinals are 3-1 against those same teams.

Braintree at Milton: Good reporting from my successor as the high school sports coordinator, Eric McHugh, about All-Scholastic Joe Donovan being able to return from injury. He should provide the difference like he did in last year's game.

North Quincy at Quincy: Last year North had the better record and frankly choked. It's been a disappointing season for both, but I like the Red Raiders to finally break their skid.

Hanover at Norwell: Look for the Clippers to come up with a big play or two in a close game.

Weymouth at Walpole: I'd like the Wildcats more if they were at home, but at least my hometown pick is justified by the return of P.J. Bonarrigo to bolster an already strong running attack.

Hingham at Scituate: The Sailors won't lack motivation, coming off their crushing OT loss to Duxbury and with the Harbormen winning the last six in this series.

Marshfield at Duxbury: Lots of intrigue in this game, with both meeting in next Tuesday's EMass D2A playoff game. In some years Marshfield's torn-up field has hampered their run-based offense; that won't be the case on Duxbury's artificial turf.

Rockland at East Bridgewater: I witnessed the Vikings' porous defense against Norwell, and I've got to believe the playoff-bound Bulldogs will take advantage.

Whitman-Hanson at Abington: The Green Wave seniors missed the playoffs; they surely won't want to be the first AHS team to lose on Thanksgiving in a while.

Bridgewater-Raynham at Randolph: The Blue Devils have got to find a more appropriate opponent; the Trojans are one of the biggest schools in the area.

Silver Lake at Pembroke: Not even the presence of Bob Bancroft can turn the Titans around in this series ... though give him a few years.

Plymouth North at Plymouth South: When in doubt, I don't pick against a Bill Burkhead team.

BC High at Catholic Memorial: I like the fact that the Eagles have fared better among their common opponents.

Cohasset at Hull: The Pirates have beaten one team with a winning record; that won't do against the playoff-bound Skippers.

South Shore Votech at Southeastern: The Vikings haven't had the horses to thrive in their wishbone-run attack.

Bristol-Plymouth at Blue Hills: The host Warriors have won three straight, but the playoff-bound Craftsmen are markedly better than those foes.

For more on these games, check out the Ledger's Thanksgiving special section on the newsstands Wednesday. Happy Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Factor in the matchups

There are times when you should pick up a guy who's going to be a starter, but most of the time you're adding guys who might help you over the long term.

Last week it was guys like Bernard Scott, Jason Snelling and Justin Forsett who were the hot pickups. This week it'll be Rock Cartwright, but outside the Redskins' new top RB, it's slim pickings. What should you do? Try targeting guys who might help you in the fantasy playoffs, which starts Week 14 for most leagues.

Again, this will depend on how deep your league is. For me, I looked at the matchups and saw Brandon Pettigrew has some nice matchups. Of course the Lions' tight end did virtually nothing in a favorable matchup against the Vikings, but did come through last week against the Browns. The Cardinals' defense is another nice play in the final few weeks. The Vikings and Seahawks will be facing some weaker-than-average defenses.

So definitely factor the remaining matchups as your trade deadline approaches. For those in keeper leagues and might be out of the playoff spot, consider trading for next year. Good luck ...

Monday, November 23, 2009

Fantasy indeed

As a married father to two young children, NFL games aren't near the top of my priority list on Sundays. There are family commitments and outings, though I'm fortunate to have an iPhone to keep track of my fantasy players.

Last Sunday, however, was a dream come true. A getaway with one of my best friends, sleeping in, leisurely brunch ... and several hours at a sports bar. It was nachos and drinks in front of seven games (an eighth was in a different part of the establishment and out of my view).

It was great to sit in the midst of hard-core fans who were sporting jerseys and gear from the Vikings, Cowboys, Ravens, Colts, Redskins and even Browns. It was clear that there were several other hard-core fantasy owners who were swiveling their heads as much as I was from game to game. And it's far more enjoyable to be able to watch the game, as oppose to checking my in-game boxscore.

The only bummer was that we missed the Pats game, as my buddy and I had to return to our families. So the next time I get an invitation to go over a friend's house on a Sunday, I think I'll have to redirect to the local sports bar.

Friday, November 20, 2009

I told me so

Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of handcuffing your top players. I scoffed at the notion of picking up Bernard Scott as a handcuff to Cedric Benson. One hip injury later, I am regretting not following my own advice.

The thinking was that Justin Fargas would likely outscore Scott, even if Benson was out with an injury. What I neglected to factor in was that the Bengals' offensive line has been good this year, and that Scott (and now even perhaps Larry Johnson) could still be a viable fantasy starter. Add to the fact that Darren McFadden is back from injury and turned the Raiders' running attack into a three-headed monster (Michael Bush surprisingly led them in rushing last week), and I'm in a sticky situation this week. Fargas, ironically, faces Benson's Bengals, who have given up the fifth-fewest points to opposing RBs.

So what to do? I missed out on Scott based on my waiver priority, as well as on the replacements for the injured Michael Turner (Jason Snelling) and Julius Jones (Justin Forsett). Rashard Mendenhall gets elevated to my RB2 spot behind Marion Barber, leaving me to fill my RB/WR flex.

If I learned anything, it's to go after the replacement of a player who's going to be out. After learning that Dwayne Bowe was going to be suspended for 4 weeks, I jumped on Lance Long. Here's a receiver whom I was considering picking up the previous week. Long is a slot receiver in the mold of Wes Welker and whom Matt Cassel has stated he likes as a target.

As for my matchup-based free-agent pickups, I'll postpone that in time for next week's waivers (sorry, work calls).

Monday, November 16, 2009

Hockey's quarter pole

Sample size is always an issue when trying to determine whether a free agent is worthy of being added, especially in leagues when there's a cap on the number of transactions. Granted, lines and pairings can still be changed, but after 20 games, fantasy hockey owners should have reasonable data to make a good decision.

I'm in two 12-team leagues but since one is a dynasty format (contracts, minors) and the other a limited keeper (3 per year), it's rare when I'm picking up the same type of players. Lo and behold, I was able to add the same three players over the last week:

  • Tomas Fleischmann, LW, Capitals: Some might have shied away from this German because of Alexander Ovechkin's impending return, but this 25-year-old has high-end talent (2nd round pick, 2004). Conversly some might have been suckered by the 'news' that Ovie was going to be out 4-5 weeks; it turns out he was pulling the leg on a Yahoo! Sports reporter. Even with an impending return to the second line shouldn't dent his value; he should continue getting power-play time (maybe even with Ovie) and the Caps have a decent second-line center in Brendan Morrison.
  • Nicklas Bergfors, RW, Devils: Here's a Swede who's coming off a solid season in the American Hockey League and finally got a chance to skate on the first line. There's a big difference in a 22-year-old like Bergfors putting up 51 points in 66 AHL games and an over-the-hill, end-of-the-bench type. Bergfors, who was taken 23rd overall in the '04 draft, has produced while skating with Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, as well as on a makeshift third line last Saturday against Fleischmann's Caps.
  • Mason Raymond, LW, Canucks: This 23-year-old was thought to be a flash-in-the-pan because he drew first-line duty due to Daniel Sedin's injury. But even if Sedin returns late this week, Raymond should be a solid producer, thanks to the continuing emergence of Ryan Kesler at second-line center and an underrated Alexandre Burrows at right wing.

I'm hoping this trio can keep my good fortune going in hockey. I finally won for the first time in my non-dynasty league and, like in my win in my keeper league, ranked among the top half of teams in terms of points scored.

It was almost a perfect fantasy weekend, but my football team was victim of some tough matchups. There's nothing you can do it when your studs are facing stiff defenses and on the road, too (Ced Benson at Pittsburgh, though he left due to injury; Rashard Mendenhall vs. Bengals; Marion Barber at Green Bay, though his injured thumb hampered his play). All that added up to the fewest points scored this week.

More later this week about factoring matchups when it comes to adding free agents in football, especially after the end of the bye-week period.

Friday, November 13, 2009

High schools: Weekend update

Friday the 13th might be considered unlucky for some, but a select few local high school teams are fortunate to still be playing. It should be noted that almost all Saturday matches have been postponed to Sunday due to the impending wet weather. Let's see how I fared in my predictions and thoughts earlier this week before the South Sectional soccer tournaments started.

In Division 1 boys soccer, Weymouth had the bad luck of being drawn with Catholic Memorial, out of the strong Catholic Conference. If the Wildcats were not edged by a goal by CM, it could have easily been Weymouth who advanced to the semifinals, as the weakest top-4 seed in the field (Greater New Bedford) lost by 3 goals to CM.

It should be said at this point that I think the seeding system in Eastern Massachusetts is deeply flawed. The Western Mass. tournament is much better organized, thanks to the thankless work by the late tournament director Tom Ford, who used the Walker method that took into account strength of schedule, instead of strictly using winning percentage.

Take a look, for example, at the Division 2 girls bracket. Only two of the top four seeds made it to the semis. Duxbury, a No. 7 seed and the defending state champion, should have been considered one of the favorites and should not have been a surprise to make it this far. The Dragons get No. 3 Canton, albeit on CHS's Memorial Field as part of a boys/girls doubleheader.

Back to the boys, but staying in D2: Canton and Duxbury are in opposite sides of the bracket as semifinalists, with my prediction of Hingham breaking through falling short. Canton's successful defense-first culture under coach Danny Erickson trumped the Harbormen's firepower.

It should be said that the sites for the semis and finals are mostly predetermined before the tournament starts after schools make their fields available to tournament directors. It may seem Canton has received an unfair advantage, as was said about Weymouth and Whitman-Hanson in recent years, but tournament directors don't have as many choices as people think. Schools don't receive any gate receipts and have to provide security and personnel; the tradeoff, of course, is that their teams might get to play on their home field.

Hanover, one of my stronger bets in the tournament as a semifinalist in D3 boys, has proven me right so far. Possibly awaiting them in the final is Archbishop Williams, which has surprised me and everybody else by making it to the final four. To be fair, Archies had to get past two schools with inferior schedules, but did edge past a South Shore League team (Mashpee) in penalties.

Similarly in D1 girls, Whitman-Hanson has made the semis as I thought. But my faith in the Norwell girls was shattered as the Clippers fell in D3 semis. I thought Norwell had the skill to overcome its traditionally average schedule, but Millis was toughened by playing bigger schools in the Tri-Valley League.

As for the other sports, good luck to the Quincy and Sacred Heart girls volleyball teams. I didn't blog about v-ball since those tournaments had already started. Nice to see the Presidents bounce back strong from a .500 season a year ago. Saints coach Rob Slavin is still one of the nicest guys in the business. Another old reliable, Canton field hockey, has made it into the D2 semis.

And most of all, good luck to the hundreds of cross country runners who will run at Franklin Park in Boston at the Eastern Mass. championships -- regardless of the weather on Saturday. They'll get a chance to prove they are some of the toughest athletes in high school athletics.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Handcuffing

For the last six weeks, most fantasy football owners have been picking up players mainly for replacing a player on a bye. Now that we're heading into the final bye week, owners need to change their approach.

At this point in the season, the available players are unlikely to be a factor in the remainder of your season. So if you're not looking for a starter, you should be looking for bench depth in the form of a handcuff, which refers to owning the backup to one of your top players.

Realize that not every backup is appropriate handcuff. As an owner of Cedric Benson, the No. 5 RB this season, I am not interested in Bernard Scott, who has a mere 16 carries this season. Scott is a rookie who has no track record of success. In thinking ahead to a worse-case scenario where Benson would get hurt, I accepted a trade for Rashard Mendenhall, whom I'd rather start than Scott if he was going to be the Bengals' starting RB.

But as an owner of Marion Barber, I am keeping Tashard Choice on my bench. Barber has had to deal with injuries to his quadriceps and thumb, and missed the Cowboys' Week 3 matchup against Carolina. Choice, who filled in well for an injured MB3 late last season, produced double-digit fantasy points from Weeks 3-5.

Another good handcuff is Matt Leinart. When I kept Kurt Warner from last year's roster, I was aware of his injury history. I decided to pick up Leinart in preseason -- an unusual move, but I thought a wise one given that we start two QBs in my 12-team league. If Leinart took over, he would be an automatic pickup and a likely above-average QB. However once I traded Warner, the need to own Leinart disappeared. I'd rather have a replacement for my own guy, rather someone else's.

A hot pickup this week is sure to be Ladell Betts. Given Clinton Portis's injury history and declining performance, Betts probably should have already been handcuffed. Granted, Portis is out next week due to a concussion and not due to his ankle and calf injuries, but Betts would have been more valuable to that Portis owner than a running-back-by-committee guy like Justin Fargas. Now I own Fargas, mostly because I think he could be a flex play, but the upside of Betts as the Redskins' No. 1 RB is higher than Fargas's, especially since Darren McFadden should return this week and split carries.

If a good handcuff is already on someone's roster, try to get that owner to throw him as an afterthought into a deal. Letting him know that you really want that player will deteriorate your negotiating and bargaining power.

Two out of three ain't bad

I have a friend who is a huge sports fan, yet who would prefer if fantasy sports never existed. He was watching the Steelers/Broncos Monday night game from the perspective of a Patriot fan. I, on the other hand, was hoping Rashard Mendenhall would get 11 points and that Ben Roethlisberger would get 9 for my buddy Bill.

Admittedly I was an underdog to win, given that the Broncos had the No. 8 fantasy run defense (and No. 3 in real life). Yet I had my win wrapped up in the third quarter, while Bill sweated out most of the fourth quarter until Big Ben threw a 7-yard completion to keep a drive alive. The last-minute TD only made a 'W' seem not as close as it actually was.

I continue to be snakebitten in my non-dynasty hockey league, scoring the fourth-most points but only to lose to the #1 team last week. In my dynasty league, I held a slight lead for most of the week and maintained throughout. That's a daily transactions nleague, but I didn't have much wiggle room with injuries to Daniel Briere and Shawn Horcoff.

Back to football: I nearly ate crow on my first trade, as my opponent was livin' large on Kurt Warner's 5 TDs and 37 fantasy points. Roddy White, meanwhile, didn't find the end zone. Mendenhall obviously redeemed me from my second big trade, with Calvin Johnson nearly matching Roddy's numbers.

All this means I've moved into a first-place tie with a 5-4 record. If the season were to end today, I'd be the division winner, since I've got the most points among the three. It's so much more enjoyable checking my usual fantasy research sites coming off some Ws.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Boys soccer: MIAA South Sectionals

As promised, I'd blog occasionally about high school sports in Ledgerland. Even though I've been on top of the scene the last nine years as the high school sports coordinator (until February), I haven't been in regular contact with the coaches when they've called in their results, so I don't have my usual special insight as the postseason starts today.

But the more things change, some things stay the same. Let's take a look at the brackets and which local might advance the furthest -- and maybe even win.

In Division 1, I'd love to predict a BC High/Weymouth final. The Eagles havd a tougher road to the semis as they'd have to get past No. 4 Brockton, to whom they have lost and tied. Weymouth has the easier road, with its first-round game against Catholic Memorial potentially its toughest. The Wildcats have the weakest top-4 seed in Greater New Bedford in its quarter, so I think they could make the final.

In Division 2, our eyes can't help be drawn to a potential Canton/Hingham quarterfinal. The Bulldogs made it to the semifinals last year with a very strong senior class. The Harbormen have had strong teams, but postseason success has eluded them. I like Hingham to break through, while No. 5 Duxbury has a good chance of making it to the final. A recent 1-nil loss to Hingham should sufficiently motivate the Dragons to be on top of their game.

In Division 3, the Patriot League sides are the one that stand out. With a variety of different schools (Catholics, votechs), the PL schools have the advantage of a tough league schedule. Longtime Hanover coach Jim Sylvia likes to say of the tournament, "It doesn't matter (about the draw). As long as you get there, anything can happen." I like the No. 7 Indians to make the final, with No. 1 Cardinal Spellman as their likely opponent.

Girls soccer: MIAA South Sectionals

As promised, I'd blog occasionally about high school sports in Ledgerland. Even though I've been on top of the scene the last nine years as the high school sports coordinator (until February), I haven't been in regular contact with the coaches when they've called in their results, so I don't have my usual special insight as the postseason starts today.

But the more things change, some things stay the same. Let's take a look at the brackets and which local might advance the furthest -- and maybe even win.

In Division 1, I have a special place in my heart for Weymouth, whom I followed to the state semifinals last fall. The 'Cats, however, have graduated the heart of that team. It'd be a feat if Coach Mac (as in John MacIntyre) could get his team into the semis. The local team that I'm tipping into the final four is Whitman-Hanson. Sure, Sam Mewis is the talismanic presence in midfield, but the Panthers boast a defense that could push them through.

In Division 2, the Hockomock League champions usually do well in this bracket, which bodes well for No. 3 Canton. In the course of writing this summer about the top club team in the area (the Scorpions U-13s), I figured forward Lauren Berman would make an impact in her freshman year on the Bulldogs. She hasn't disappointed. I'd like the Bulldogs' chances of making the final if Dedham, which plays out of the always-tough Bay State Conference, weren't in their quarter of the draw. As for defending state champion Duxbury, I can't see the Dragons getting as lucky as they did in last year's postseason.

In Division 3, I am trusting my GateHouse South sports editor Ryan Wood, who has been on the Norwell bandwagon all fall. Ryan's a fellow soccer junkie and Chelsea fan, so I trust he knows his stuff. The Clippers have topped his regional rankings for most of the season. A potential pitfall lies with Hanover, with whom they drew 2-2 last Monday, in a potential semifinal. The other side of the bracket should not offer much resistance.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

There's always next year ...

The title is not a reference to your title chances in fantasy football. It's about your league's rules and settings.

Assuming you've got a commissioner who's willing to listen about improvements, this is the perfect time to think about things you'd like to change.

In my league, we've got a healthy thread on our message board full of suggestions. It was started by me after Eddie Royal scored two return touchdowns -- and I, as a Royal owner, did not get credit for them because special teams touchdowns were rolled in with defenses. Granted, I should have known that, but I felt annoyed enough to fire off a rant on the league board that also included something on defensive TDs not being worth enough.

Soon, people chimed in with some good ideas: adjusting the points awarded for yards, adding points for first downs, adding IDPs (individual defensive players) and adding a nominal amount for return yards.

This is also the time when commishes should be on owners who haven't paid the league dues as we're at the midway point. Trying to collect after the season is over is very difficult -- my football league nearly dissolved after a fill-in commish botched the money situation and the winner didn't get all his money.

In my league, the worst teams have a 3-5 record and the best has a 6-2 mark, so no team is out of the playoff race (the top 8 teams qualify). This parity has kept all the owners involved, so they shouldn't jeopardize a playoff spot by not paying up.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Losing swagger

For the better part of 10 years, you didn't want to face one of my teams. Whether it was football, hockey or baseball, my teams haven't just been in the top half of the league standings -- they've been at the top or just off it.

Not this year.

In my hockey league with my hometown buddies, I'm 0-4 and a half-point away from the fewest scored. The tie that I thought I had turned out to be a 'L' after an apparent scoring change.

In my keeper hockey league, I'm 2-2 and 4th in points scored (out of 12).

In football, I'm 4-4 and in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored.

After a long track record of finishing in the money, I don't think for a minute that I might have lucked out all these years. But still, it's astonishing to have such an autumn of discontent.

Luck -- or rather, lack of it -- has something to do with it. In one hockey league, the owner with the most points scored didn't even draft his team (two fellow owners drafted for him). In both hockey leagues, I've been snake-bitten by poor goaltending and injuries.

It's said that things even themselves out in the end. And we're only one-sixth through the hockey season. So I'll try to follow my own advice and not panic. That means not making rash trades, cutting bait on my studs, and getting frustrated and apathetic.