Players on the 32 World Cup rosters are undergoing more scrutiny than at any point of the year, but people should not discard what they've done over 10 months with their clubs. Those of us who watch the players of their favorite clubs over 30-something matches that have a certain affinity for their players.
Evaluating such players with honesty, rather than homerism, will help you better judge their place and their country's chances. I'll start this exercise with Chelsea, my favorite club. The Blues are one of the biggest clubs in the world and have a bevy of players who are headed to South Africa.
France, besides drawing ire from much of the sporting world for that infamous hand ball against Ireland, was not showing well for much of the World Cup buildup until their lame-duck coach, Raymond Domenech, surprisingly switched formations. His 4-3-3 that puts forward Nicolas Anelka and left-sided midfielder Florent Malouda into positions where they thrived for Chelsea. I still don't fancy France getting past the second round, but they're lucky they're in a weak Group A that they will likely win.
Given that Portugal is supposedly relying on Deco to orchestrate in the center of the park and Ricardo Carvalho to be a bedrock in the center of defense, this does not bode well for Cristiano Ronaldo's side. Both players have been out of form with Chelsea, with Carvalho at least able to cite injury. Some solace can be found with Paulo Ferreira, who was solid but not spectacular at right back over the last month. Their FIFA ranking is high, but I see the Portuguese being the odd man out in the Group of Death. Which leads us to ...
Ivory Coast, who is powered by Didier Drogba, one of the top strikers in the world. Fellow forward Salomon Kalou had some productive games for Chelsea over the last two months, but at times showed his propensity for blowing easy chances. I see the Ivorians finishing second in Group G.
In Group D, Serbia is one of my darkhorse teams in this year's tournament, and Branislav Ivanovic is part of the reason. The right back can deputize as a central defender and offers a threat in the penalty area on set pieces. But it's the Serbs' commitment to attacking that has me stoked for their chances in Group D. I see them advancing out of the group. Speaking of Group D, two other sides have suffered devastating injuries to talismanic players.
Germany has lost captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury; his box-to-box play is irreplaceable. The Germans are famous for their tournament acumen, but Ballack's absence could deprive them of enough quality to make the semifinals. Ghana lost its captain, Michael Essien, due to a knee injury; it's a wonder Chelsea achieved so much this year without their holding midfielder. It's important to remember that Ghana made it to the African Nations Cup final without Essien, so they have proven they can achieve things without his influence. Still it'll be difficult to choose Ghana to advance over Germany.
Another CFC midfielder, John Obi Mikel, is injured and might not be able to play for his country, though Nigeria has included him in its final roster. Even if Mikel was healthy, Chelsea fans have to shudder to learn that the Super Eagles are likely to use him in an attacking midfield role. His sometimes shoddy passing as a holding midfielder is something we've put up with; I can't imagine a team relying on Mikel to unlock defenses and create. I am not tipping Nigeria to advance out of Group B.
Slovakia has a Chelsea player whom many people forget is registered with the club: Miroslav Stoch. The left-sided attacking player did well on loan with FC Twente in Holland and was important to the Slovaks' qualifying campaign. Slovakia stands a good chance of advancing out of Group F; the team has an easier opener than Paraguay before they meet in the second group game.
Last, but not least is England. Deposed captain John Terry has not looked like the rock he once was before his infidelity scandal. Frank Lampard missed a penalty against Japan, and Chelsea fans won't forget his PK misses against Manchester City and Portsmouth, the latter nearly costing the team the FA Cup final. The midfielder occupies a different role with the national team and has not been able to replicate his same goal-scoring form.
Ashley Cole is clearly the country's best left back, but it remains whether he is fully recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him for much of this calendar year. Cole also is not given as much license to venture as deep into the attacking third as he does with Chelsea. Joe Cole's role under coach Fabio Capello is still unclear, but it seems the midfielder will likely win a spot on the bench given his performance as a reserve against Japan. I see England topping Group C, with a run into semifinals being realistic.
I've included Joe Cole in this discussion, but will not delve into players who stand no chance of going to South Africa like Hilario (Portugal), Alex (Brazil), etc.
Now what about your favorite players and club teams? How do their national teams stand?
Monday, May 31, 2010
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Scouting USA and England after their first friendly
With the USA and England both not featuring their full sides in their respective friendlies against the Czech Republic and Mexico this week, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions before their June 12 first-round match in the World Cup.
The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.
The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.
Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.
On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.
Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.
The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.
The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.
Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.
On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.
Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Fantasy fallout from the biggest choke job in NHL history
So the unbelievable has happened ... the Boston Bruins blew a 3-0 lead in a best-of-7 series AND a 3-0 lead in Game 7 (on home ice, to boot).
Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.
At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.
Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.
OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.
Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.
When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.
Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).
Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).
Let's look at some of the more dubious players.
Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).
Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.
Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.
In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.
Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.
Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.
At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.
Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.
OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.
Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.
When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.
Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).
Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).
Let's look at some of the more dubious players.
Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).
Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.
Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.
In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.
Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.
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