Tuesday, June 1, 2010

USA/England after Memorial Day weekend

The favorites to advance out of Group C had mixed results again after their latest friendlies over Memorial Day weekend, but this time it's the United States that emerged looking better.

The Americans' first half against Turkey was dismal, yet there was a lot to take away from Bob Bradley's second-half substitutions. Jose Torres was much more influential than Benny Feilhaber on the left side of midfield, as was Stuart Holden over Ricardo Clark in the center of midfield. Robbie Findley offered a spark up front and started the play that resulted in Jozy Altidore's goal (he should thank the Turkish keeper for a terrible decision to stray far off his line). Outside backs Jonathan Bornstein and Steve Cherundolo played better than Carlos Bocanegra and Jonathan Spector, offering more spark moving forward and defending the flank area better.

England looked pedestrian the following day against a World Cup-bound Japan side that was not the equal of Turkey, who failed to qualify. England's passing in midfield was atrocious, though the insertion of Steven Gerrard in a deep midfield role greatly improved that department. Wayne Rooney was forced to track back too deep to be much of a factor, and his two strike partners were not a factor. Theo Walcott's performance at right midfield was dire enough for him to be dropped by Fabio Capello, and Aaron Lennon looked out of place on the left. The first-team defense hardly dominated as they should have. Joe Hart continues to be in the most in-form England keeper, though it still seems unlikely he will start.

The USA still has a friendly left, on June 5 against Australia, and the most pressing matter is whether Bradley will give those second-half subs a more extended look.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Don't forget what you learned from the club season

Players on the 32 World Cup rosters are undergoing more scrutiny than at any point of the year, but people should not discard what they've done over 10 months with their clubs. Those of us who watch the players of their favorite clubs over 30-something matches that have a certain affinity for their players.

Evaluating such players with honesty, rather than homerism, will help you better judge their place and their country's chances. I'll start this exercise with Chelsea, my favorite club. The Blues are one of the biggest clubs in the world and have a bevy of players who are headed to South Africa.

France, besides drawing ire from much of the sporting world for that infamous hand ball against Ireland, was not showing well for much of the World Cup buildup until their lame-duck coach, Raymond Domenech, surprisingly switched formations. His 4-3-3 that puts forward Nicolas Anelka and left-sided midfielder Florent Malouda into positions where they thrived for Chelsea. I still don't fancy France getting past the second round, but they're lucky they're in a weak Group A that they will likely win.

Given that Portugal is supposedly relying on Deco to orchestrate in the center of the park and Ricardo Carvalho to be a bedrock in the center of defense, this does not bode well for Cristiano Ronaldo's side. Both players have been out of form with Chelsea, with Carvalho at least able to cite injury. Some solace can be found with Paulo Ferreira, who was solid but not spectacular at right back over the last month. Their FIFA ranking is high, but I see the Portuguese being the odd man out in the Group of Death. Which leads us to ...

Ivory Coast, who is powered by Didier Drogba, one of the top strikers in the world. Fellow forward Salomon Kalou had some productive games for Chelsea over the last two months, but at times showed his propensity for blowing easy chances. I see the Ivorians finishing second in Group G.

In Group D, Serbia is one of my darkhorse teams in this year's tournament, and Branislav Ivanovic is part of the reason. The right back can deputize as a central defender and offers a threat in the penalty area on set pieces. But it's the Serbs' commitment to attacking that has me stoked for their chances in Group D. I see them advancing out of the group. Speaking of Group D, two other sides have suffered devastating injuries to talismanic players.

Germany has lost captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury; his box-to-box play is irreplaceable. The Germans are famous for their tournament acumen, but Ballack's absence could deprive them of enough quality to make the semifinals. Ghana lost its captain, Michael Essien, due to a knee injury; it's a wonder Chelsea achieved so much this year without their holding midfielder. It's important to remember that Ghana made it to the African Nations Cup final without Essien, so they have proven they can achieve things without his influence. Still it'll be difficult to choose Ghana to advance over Germany.

Another CFC midfielder, John Obi Mikel, is injured and might not be able to play for his country, though Nigeria has included him in its final roster. Even if Mikel was healthy, Chelsea fans have to shudder to learn that the Super Eagles are likely to use him in an attacking midfield role. His sometimes shoddy passing as a holding midfielder is something we've put up with; I can't imagine a team relying on Mikel to unlock defenses and create. I am not tipping Nigeria to advance out of Group B.

Slovakia has a Chelsea player whom many people forget is registered with the club: Miroslav Stoch. The left-sided attacking player did well on loan with FC Twente in Holland and was important to the Slovaks' qualifying campaign. Slovakia stands a good chance of advancing out of Group F; the team has an easier opener than Paraguay before they meet in the second group game.

Last, but not least is England. Deposed captain John Terry has not looked like the rock he once was before his infidelity scandal. Frank Lampard missed a penalty against Japan, and Chelsea fans won't forget his PK misses against Manchester City and Portsmouth, the latter nearly costing the team the FA Cup final. The midfielder occupies a different role with the national team and has not been able to replicate his same goal-scoring form.

Ashley Cole is clearly the country's best left back, but it remains whether he is fully recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him for much of this calendar year. Cole also is not given as much license to venture as deep into the attacking third as he does with Chelsea. Joe Cole's role under coach Fabio Capello is still unclear, but it seems the midfielder will likely win a spot on the bench given his performance as a reserve against Japan. I see England topping Group C, with a run into semifinals being realistic.

I've included Joe Cole in this discussion, but will not delve into players who stand no chance of going to South Africa like Hilario (Portugal), Alex (Brazil), etc.

Now what about your favorite players and club teams? How do their national teams stand?

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Scouting USA and England after their first friendly

With the USA and England both not featuring their full sides in their respective friendlies against the Czech Republic and Mexico this week, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions before their June 12 first-round match in the World Cup.

The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.

The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.

Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.

On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.

Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Fantasy fallout from the biggest choke job in NHL history

So the unbelievable has happened ... the Boston Bruins blew a 3-0 lead in a best-of-7 series AND a 3-0 lead in Game 7 (on home ice, to boot).

Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.

At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.

Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.

OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.

Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.

When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.

Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).

Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).

Let's look at some of the more dubious players.

Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).

Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.

Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.

In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.

Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Think about your league's payout

Most fantasy baseball leagues that play in a head-to-head format pay out the same way: the majority of the pot goes to the postseason champion and the losing finalist getting half that amount. But is that the fairest way toward paying out?

Given that we're only in the third week of the season, consider whether it's too late to discuss this with your commissioner and fellow owners. As much as many of us play for the thrill of the competition, it is nice to get a proper chunk of change if you do well.

My biggest problem with the traditional payoff is that it discounts too much of the regular season. Everybody plays for 21 weeks, yet your league champion can simply be the best playoff team in September. On the flip side the overemphasis on the playoffs can lead to dominant teams falling victim to a fluke -- which has happened to be twice in fantasy hockey.

It's one thing to try to mirror how the World Series champ is decided, but one can only go so far in making fantasy like reality. And the reality is that there are generally 2-4 owners who have managed well enough to earn a good chunk of change -- and we're not talking about your traditional third-place owner merely making his money back or just earning a little more than that.

I was able to pitch to my commish and fellow owners that a payoff that balanced the two seasons was the best route. So in my daily 10-team non-keeper league, the regular-season wins/loss champion gets 25%, the regular-season points champion gets 25% and the postseason champion gets the remaining 50%.

Given the amount of luck involved in matchups, paying out to the points champion rewards the owner who is snake bitten by close losses and/or bad luck. I like to say that the only thing us owners can control is our lineup and therefore our points scored. Things like the opponent and points against are factors we cannot control.

Since introducing the 25/25/50 payout to my leagues, I haven't heard a vociferous outcry against it. That's because it's the fairest way to monetarily reward the best owners. It should be noted that only once has an owner won all three pots -- now that's a truly dominant team.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Consider an offline draft

Now that my 17-day (yes, SEVENTEEN) draft is over, I feel I can blog about fantasy baseball again. With at least two owners possibly reading, I didn't want to expose my hand during the draft.

As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.

My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.

Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.

So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?
  1. For starters, how many times have you uttered the phrase, "Draft day is the best day of the year." If so, why not take a day and extend it over two-plus weeks?
  2. How many times have you felt rushed in making a pick? With roughly 8 hours between picks, there's plenty of time to research and readjust your draft list.
  3. The deeper your draft extends into late March, the better your information will be. How many owners in early March felt good drafting Joe Nathan, only to have him injure his elbow and miss the 2010 season? Particularly if you're in a deep league (like my 10-team mixed league that rosters 33 players per team), the winners of the position, lineup and rotation battles will matter.
It'll be interesting to see whether we'll choose to draft offline next year if people are available for an online draft.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Fantasy hockey: Better luck next year

Week 22 of the fantasy hockey season is upon us, and I'm sitting on the proverbial sidelines in both my leagues. It's the first time I've missed the playoffs, so it's an odd feeling. In a way, it's just as well since I've devoted most of my free time researching for my ongoing offline baseball draft.

Now I can sit back and root for my Bruins and Rangers, without much fantasy implication at all. Sure, one of my leagues is a keeper but there's plenty of time to look back at what I'll miss over the last dozen or so regular-season games. And I don't pay much mind to playoff stats; they usually don't indicate enough significance on next season.