Consider an offline draft

Now that my 17-day (yes, SEVENTEEN) draft is over, I feel I can blog about fantasy baseball again. With at least two owners possibly reading, I didn't want to expose my hand during the draft.

As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.

My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.

Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.

So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?

1. For starters, how many times have you uttered the phrase, "Draft day is the best day of the year." If so, why not take a day and extend it over two-plus weeks?
2. How many times have you felt rushed in making a pick? With roughly 8 hours between picks, there's plenty of time to research and readjust your draft list.
3. The deeper your draft extends into late March, the better your information will be. How many owners in early March felt good drafting Joe Nathan, only to have him injure his elbow and miss the 2010 season? Particularly if you're in a deep league (like my 10-team mixed league that rosters 33 players per team), the winners of the position, lineup and rotation battles will matter.

It'll be interesting to see whether we'll choose to draft offline next year if people are available for an online draft.

Fantasy hockey: Better luck next year

Week 22 of the fantasy hockey season is upon us, and I'm sitting on the proverbial sidelines in both my leagues. It's the first time I've missed the playoffs, so it's an odd feeling. In a way, it's just as well since I've devoted most of my free time researching for my ongoing offline baseball draft.

Now I can sit back and root for my Bruins and Rangers, without much fantasy implication at all. Sure, one of my leagues is a keeper but there's plenty of time to look back at what I'll miss over the last dozen or so regular-season games. And I don't pay much mind to playoff stats; they usually don't indicate enough significance on next season.

Fantasy hockey: Trade impact

Since the NHL trading deadline last week didn't produce any big moves, this is a good time to evaluate the spate of blockbuster trades that nearly two months ago. Oddly enough most of the players involved had connections to my two teams. And now that I've given them time to play nearly a dozen games, this is a good time to check in on their fantasy values:

• Dion Phaneuf (Flames to Maple Leafs): Thumbs down. He went from one of the best teams in the Western Conference to one of the worst in the Eastern. Even though he'll be logging more minutes, particularly on the power play, Phaneuf will be surrounded by a lesser cast of players. Two assists and a minus-1 in 11 games doesn't leave me hopeful for someone whom I extended to a three-year contract in the offseason.
  
• Matt Stajan (Maple Leafs to Flames): The principal player to Calgary in the above deal, Stajan nearly got added to both my keeper and non-keeper teams due to possible first-line time with Jarome Iginla. Instead the centerman has continued to produce at his recent levels, with his 8 points in 12 Flames games right in line with his pace with the Leafs the last season and a half. The same is true for Jason Blake, whom Toronto flipped to Anaheim.
  
• Olli Jokinen (Flames to Rangers): I don't own the centerman, but his acquisition casted a pall on the value of Brandon Dubinsky, whom I had just traded for in my dynasty league. The fear was that Jokinen would center the first line, bumping Dubs to the second. Instead coach John Tortorella kept Dubs next to star winger Marian Gaborik and tried to have Jokinen form a legitimate second line that the Rangers have been lacking. Jokinen has responded with a 2-7-9 pace in 11 games that is the best in three seasons.
• Ilya Kovalchuk (Thrashers to Devils): As one of the owners of the left wing, I hoped the Russian would have landed in a more offensive environment. He's produced 8 points in 10 games, but that's still below his point-per-game pace over his career. The Devils are still shuffling their lines, with Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner as the current solutions.
• Niclas Bergfors (Devils to Thrashers): I was very high on the 22-year-old in 2009, but the new year was not kind to the Swede as his minutes and production diminished. It turned out getting out of Jacques Lemaire's doghouse was the trick, as Bergfors has produced a 6-2-8 in 11 games. An unexpected beneficiary has been Thrashers wing Bryan Little, who clicked with Bergfors and could be line for more minutes.

As for the March 3 trades, there weren't many eventful ones. As the Bruins' move of acquiring Dennis Seidenberg, it's a case of a better trade in real life than in fantasy. The former Panther scored at a 0.4 per game pace the last season and a half, and doesn't seem poised to exceed that with 1 point in 4 games so far.

Fantasy baseball: Why I passed on Hanley at #2

The consensus No. 2 draft pick in fantasy baseball drafts is one-time Red Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez, right behind Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.

Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!

No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.

I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.

And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.

Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.

I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.

Fantasy baseball: Book-worthy

Rare are the books on fantasy (or rotisserie, to be old school) baseball that are worth buying because the perception is that they're out of date -- and this was before the Internet. In recent years, the surviving books concentrate more on the methodology of forecasting future performance.

I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.

The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.

As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.

The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.

Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.

Fantasy baseball: Magazine advice

It's difficult to walk into a bookstore these days without avoiding the dozen or so fantasy baseball magazine covers trying to tempt you into plopping down $8 or so for them. So what should factor in your decision to buy?

First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.

Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.

For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.

The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.

Fantasy hockey: Back to the grind

After an unprecedented two-week midseason break, I'm ready for some NHL games again. Yes, the Olympics produced some great action, but alas there are no fantasy points to be had.

Brian Rafalski owners will hope the Red Wings defenseman will show the same goal-scoring touch as he did in Vancouver. Normally a reliable double-digit goal-scorer, the 36-year-old has only 4 goals in 57 games -- the same number he had in 6 Olympic games for the United States.

Owners of Wings and Avalanche players who played in the Olympics will be at a disadvantage tonight, as the two teams square off in the first post-break game. There's no reliable evidence to suggest that Olympians suffer from having to play up to 6 intense games in a 14-day period, so you shouldn't consider benching your top players who might have participated. If you've got to choose between an Olympian and a non-Olympian, you might want to consider the player who had a two-week rest -- particularly those who might have been snubbed (Martin St. Louis and his ilk) and might have a little more fire to get back on the ice.

For most leagues, there are only two weeks left in most regular seasons, with the last 4 weeks devoted to the fantasy playoffs. The next big date to mark on your calendar Wednesday's trade deadline at 3 p.m.; may any of your swapped players land in better situations.

Next we might take a look at some of the principals in the flurry of blockbuster trades, now that they've had 5 or so games with the new teams.