Friday, October 30, 2009

Studly or not?

Frank Lampard is unknown to most of the American sporting public. His name might be a little more familiar when the World Cup soccer finals take place in South Africa next summer. Lampard is a starting midfielder for the English national team who is better known for his play for Chelsea in the English Premier League.

So why should you care? Because 2009 season is remarkably similar to Tom Brady's. And owners of such underperforming first-rounders like Steven Jackson and Steve Slaton should take heed.

Lampard has been remarkably consistent in his production. His goal totals from each of the last three seasons: 11, 10, 12. His assist totals: 12, 10, 10. It's all the more impressive considering that the 2007-08 campaign was shortened by injury, when he logged only 60% of the minutes from each of the other two full seasons (3,200-plus, or roughly 36 of 38 EPL matches).

From a fantasy perspective, Lampard has been fantasy gold. The official fantasy game through Barclays (the league's sponsor) is a salary-cap game, rather than one in which only one manager in a league can own a player. It's no surprise that Frank's salary was 12.5 million pounds -- tied for the highest with another studly midfielder, Steven Gerrard of Liverpool.

But Lamps endured the worst start of his career, tallying only 1 goal and 5 assists through 9 matches. New coach Carlo Ancelotti's new diamond formation, which placed Frank at an outside midfield position rather than in a more central role, was a huge factor, yet the player himself said it was a matter of time before he began converting his chances.

Sure enough, last Saturday, he did. In a 5-0 thrashing of Blackburn, Lampard knocked in 2 goals. It should be stated that even though this slump was unprecedented for him, Lamps still ranked second in points among midfielders.

So what can be learned? Trust your studs. They have reached that plateau through years of consistency and will eventually come around.

Take a look at Tom Brady. For the first five weeks of the season, he had looked a shell of his glory days. Then came the Titans and their porous pass defense. Six touchdowns and a season-high 380 yards later, plus another solid game against the Buccaneers, put Brady at #12 in my league's scoring format (#5 among QBs).

Now there comes a time when owners have to take a hard look at their underperforming studs. Matt Forte was a near unianimous first-rounder: an RB who was a factor in the passing game and who had no viable challenger to him for touches. Yet as we roll into Week 8, Forte ranks only 27th among RBs in my league and 69th overall. Forte's yards-per-carry is lower than last year (3.5 to 3.9), but a huge difference is scoring only 1 TD, which is far off the pace from duplicating 12 from a year ago.

Given that nearly half the season is over, it might be time to trade Forte. But beware.

Like I posted earlier, I had a fellow owner who had had enough of Roddy White, a unanimous top-10 WR this season. After disappointing for the first three weeks, White came off his bye and produced a monster 210-yard, 2-TD performance. Mike couldn't sell fast enough, proposing a trade for Kurt Warner (he had poor JaMarcus Russell as his QB2).

How's that trade working out? White has scored 12.2 and 12.8 in back-to-back weeks, while Warner has scored 21 points during the same span. Given that we start two QBs, it could be said that Warner is more valuable than White. But I like White as someone in his prime (we can keep three players) and was worried about Warner's injury/health history.

White's re-emergence allowed me to trade Calvin Johnson and get a solid RB in Rashard Mendenhall. It's been a win-win so far -- which is how I like my trades best. It's up to you as a fantasy owner to know when to hold on and when to cut bait.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Anatomy of a trade

I was going to blog later this week about what to do underperforming studs. One fellow football owner helped solve my problem by proposing a trade for him.

The player in question is Calvin Johnson. He proposed a 1-for-1 deal, with him sending Rashard Mendenhall. I accepted.

Like most trades, this deal was made from having excess at a position. I had two WRs (Vincent Jackson and Roddy White) who were outperforming 'Megatron'. Steve had an excess at RBs (Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas and Tim Hightower), but did not have someone with WR1 talent (Donald Driver comes the closest for him).

Wide receivers are coveted in our 12-team league because we have two flex positions (RB/WR and WR/TE), and we reward each reception with 0.3 points. While I have Cedric Benson and the Cowboys' duo of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice, I've been looking to add a quality RB. I worry slightly about Benson's ability to hold up under what will be his most touches in a season and more about Barber's effectiveness due to his quad injury. Given the depth of the league and the quality of the owners, I've been unable to find someone on the waiver wire (I've had a fairly low priority based on my record and points scored).

So why make the deal? Johnson's hip and knee injuries have me worried; he's not a sure thing to play this week, even coming off a bye week. And of course, Johnson plays for the Lions. I've got a decent set of lesser WRs that I can use in my other flex (Nate Washington, Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan), and it's easier to find a WR to use in a matchup play than a RB.

Mendenhall is not without issues. He is on bye this week, though I wasn't confident of starting Johnson in one of my flex spots anyways. The second-year back has had to deal with a knee injury and has fumbled twice in two weeks. And the traditional run-heavy Steelers have been passing more this season.

Still, when in doubt, I tend to pull the trigger on a trade. Making a deal sends a signal to other owners that you're open to moving players (this will be my league-high third trade) and, like I've posted before, it's just more fun trading. In this case, I think it's a win-win for both.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Do you believe in karma?

I'm feeling pretty chipper this Monday, especially after taking 3 Ls seven days ago.

I finally won for the first time this season in my keeper hockey league, but it's the tie in my other league that has me pumped. I trailed the entire week and entered Sunday, down 191.3 to 210.6. I knew the second-to-last game of the night, between the Blue Jackets and Kings, was going to decide the matchup. When I started watching early in the second period, things looked dire. My supposedly stud goalie, Steve Mason, had already given up two goals. The only consolation was that I had three Kings.

I was tempted to switch to the ALCS or Sunday night football, or even the Canucks/Oilers game that started one hour later, but I held out hope. Sure enough, my two LA forwards, Anze Kopitar and Alex Frolov, started to score -- albeit against Mason -- and at even strength, meaning at least they were getting plus points instead of zero or minus, along with D-man Jack Johnson.

I wound up watching the rest of the late game, but did not want to add up the fantasy points prematurely since scoring decisions can be changed. Now I know I had absolutely nothing to do with those Kings players doing what they did, but still it's fun to root, to hope and to believe, right? If I had turned away from that game in disgust and woke up this morning to find out that I had pulled out a tie, I wouldn't have felt as good about myself as I do now.

The tie puts me at 0-2-1. I'm still second-to-last in points, so I've got a lot of work cut out. But this tie at least provides a good story to tell -- especially the next time I see my opponent (and friend), Brian.

My win in fantasy football was nothing to brag about; my friend Paul had both his starting QBs on bye and there were no replacements available on the waiver wire (it's a 12-team league in which we start 2). Barring anything outrageous in tonight's Redskins/Eagles game, I'll be 4-3 and in a four-way tie for first place in my division (the top four teams go to the playoffs).

Later this week: I'll use an example from my fantasy soccer league that might aid you in fantasy football.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Draft advice

We're coming up on the final weekend of the NBA preseason, which means it's two big days for fantasy NBA drafts.

I won't attempt to pass any advice to you, hoop-wise, since I don't follow the league closely. What I can offer is draft advice.

I do consider myself an expert on drafting. I can hardly pass up an offer to do a draft; that's how I got into joining a fantasy hoops league two years ago. (I also tried getting KG, Pierce and Ray Allen on the same team, which didn't happen.)

Here are some tips, no matter which fantasy sport you might be drafting for:
  • Know your league -- as in rules, scoring and owners. I always find it amazing when a owner comes out of a draft and says something to the effect of 'I didn't know that was a category' or 'I didn't know we needed 'X' number of 'Y' players at that position'. I mean, that should affect the valuation you put on players. For example, my fantasy football league has two flex spots in which a WR can fill both. Given that it's a slight PPR league (0.3 point per catch, instead of the standard 1), it pays to load up on receivers.
  • Make a list of players you want. Don't be that guy holding up your draft because you're flipping through your fantasy mag or furiously Googling for news. Chances are your last-minute find won't pan out as well as the player that you should have researched beforehand. You don't want to miss on your first few picks; get those right. Making a list comes in handy late in the draft of a deep league (usually 12 or more owners).
  • Be aware the way your draft applet lists available players. I've used the big fantasy sites like CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo!, and all of them list, by default, players according to their ranking, which probably won't help you, unless you're using a very vanilla, standard-like scoring system. You're likely to have a few owners who don't know the league rules/scoring that well and didn't do their research, so they're taking the proverbial 'best player available' -- according to your site's rankings. Fill up your draft queue with your draft targets, but don't take them too soon if they're not likely to be taken. In hockey, I was able to get Blues defenseman Erik Johnson late in my draft; he missed all of last season due to a preseason injury but is a former high first-rounder with upside.
  • Keep track of your opponents' rosters. This sort of gets back to Point #1: know your owners and who their 'pets' might be. Be aware of what positions they've filled and what positions they might be going after.
And remember, this is fantasy sports. It's not life and death. If you want your favorite player or load up on guys on your favorite team, go for it.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Monday morning blues

I've had better Mondays, fantasy-wise.

Both my fantasy hockey teams lost, dropping me to 0-2 in each league. My fantasy football team, after starting off 3-0, is slated to lose a third straight week.

In my full-contract, keeper hockey league, I rank 5th out of 12 teams in points. I was unlucky in Week 1 to be matched up with the #1 team in points; I was #2, losing by 45.

In my other hockey league (limited keeper; only 2 per year), things are more dismal. I rank 10th out of 12 teams, with injuries to Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk (my first-round draft pick) not helping.

My standing in my football league is still to be determined since I've got Vincent Jackson and Eddie Royal going tonight, but I think I'll still finish with the fewest points this week.

So what to do?

I'm taking solace in fantasy soccer team. I organized a league with seven friends (all with ties to GateHouse Media New England) that covers the English Premier League. After four weeks, I ranked tied for last. I'm happy to say after 9 weeks, I'm in first place by 12 points.

Granted, some of my fellow owners have not been making use of their transfers and managing their team from week to week ... but isn't that the point of fantasy sports? Meanwhile, I was dropping out-of-form players, adding those who were in form and not afraid to bench 'name' players in favor of those who had better matchups.

So it's OK to wallow a bit, but buck up and keep at it. Work the waiver wire, don't be afraid to trade and look at those matchups.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

NFL: Consider trading

It's not ideal to start blogging about any sport in midseason, but good advice is better late than never. As we approach the midway point of the fantasy football season (most regular seasons go through Week 13, since experienced commissioners are wise enough not to use Week 17 at all), here's something to consider, no matter where you are in the standings: Trading.

With only four more weeks to deal with bye weeks, you might be able to strike a deal that you would otherwise couldn't. Case in point: a recent trade in my 12-team league.

After trading Kurt Warner for Roddy White, (I'm already starting Joe Flacco and Tony Romo in a 2-QB league), I realized that I had a hole this week since Romo and the Cowboys are on a bye. Checking the other rosters in my league revealed one owner with a decent QB (Jason Campbell) on his bench with little chance of starting; Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are solidly his starters.

My friend Bill was willing to deal Campbell and get some value for him, whereas if he waited after Week 10, Campbell would likely have netted little back in trade. Even though Big Ben is on bye in Week 8, Bill was willing to take a potential hit to get a TE with upside (Jermichael Finley) and a backup QB (Matt Leinart) who might play in Week 8 given Warner's injury/health history.

If you had told me a week ago I could have traded Warner, Leinart and Finley for Roddy White and Jason Campbell, I would have been ecstatic. And that's what I am, heading into this weekend's action.

NHL: Not too early to add

The 2009-10 NHL season is not even a month old, yet there are some players who might be on your waiver wire who are worth adding.

Let's take a look at the New York Rangers, who are one of my two favorite teams despite growing up a Bruins fan (that's a story for another time).

Hobey Baker Award winner Matt Gilroy received a lot of preseason buzz for his end-to-end play as an offensive defensemen, while 19-year-old Michael Del Zotto, the team's first-round draft pick in 2008, had a very solid but not as impressive preseason.

I bit on Gilroy, rostering him in both my 12-team leagues. In the season opener against the Penguins, Gilroy was good, while Del Zotto looked a little nervous in his end. But who was on the first power-play unit? Del Zotto.

Through 7 games, Del Zotto has been the Ranger skater (never mind defenseman) who has garnered the most power-play time (4:18). Gilroy, who ranks second in PP time among D-men (2:17), has played 5:10 more at even strength and 1:10 more shorthanded for a total of 19:14 to Del's 14:55, yet Del Zotto is the guy you want now.

For the remainder of the season, however, Gilroy should shape up as the better bet. Del Zotto has accumulated a 2-5-7 line through 7 games, mostly by getting his shot/pass from the point to the net. The likelihood of that success rate continuing is less than Gilroy, who has only 1 assist, finally being rewarded on the scoresheet with his constant forays in joining the rush.

Among forwards, Brandon Dubinsky was not even mentioned much as a sleeper. Here was someone who scored a modest 41 points in 82 games last season. Yet an expected jump in ice time should have portended his 2-4-6 start in 7 games.

Last year the 23-year-old played 2:16 on the PP and 16:38 in all situations. Given John Tortorella's history of giving his top forwards 20-plus minutes on board in Tampa, it should not have been a surprise that Doobs was going to have a career year. He's playing only 25 seconds more on the man-advantage, but he's playing nearly 5 more minutes more overall (21:27).

Dubinsky's absence from training camp during a contract dispute further dampened expectations, but once signed, observers should have figured that he'd center the first line. There was talk of Vinny Prospal taking that spot next to Marian Gaborik, but Prospal did his best work in Tampa as a left wing. The winner: Dubinsky, of course.