Friday, October 30, 2009

Studly or not?

Frank Lampard is unknown to most of the American sporting public. His name might be a little more familiar when the World Cup soccer finals take place in South Africa next summer. Lampard is a starting midfielder for the English national team who is better known for his play for Chelsea in the English Premier League.

So why should you care? Because 2009 season is remarkably similar to Tom Brady's. And owners of such underperforming first-rounders like Steven Jackson and Steve Slaton should take heed.

Lampard has been remarkably consistent in his production. His goal totals from each of the last three seasons: 11, 10, 12. His assist totals: 12, 10, 10. It's all the more impressive considering that the 2007-08 campaign was shortened by injury, when he logged only 60% of the minutes from each of the other two full seasons (3,200-plus, or roughly 36 of 38 EPL matches).

From a fantasy perspective, Lampard has been fantasy gold. The official fantasy game through Barclays (the league's sponsor) is a salary-cap game, rather than one in which only one manager in a league can own a player. It's no surprise that Frank's salary was 12.5 million pounds -- tied for the highest with another studly midfielder, Steven Gerrard of Liverpool.

But Lamps endured the worst start of his career, tallying only 1 goal and 5 assists through 9 matches. New coach Carlo Ancelotti's new diamond formation, which placed Frank at an outside midfield position rather than in a more central role, was a huge factor, yet the player himself said it was a matter of time before he began converting his chances.

Sure enough, last Saturday, he did. In a 5-0 thrashing of Blackburn, Lampard knocked in 2 goals. It should be stated that even though this slump was unprecedented for him, Lamps still ranked second in points among midfielders.

So what can be learned? Trust your studs. They have reached that plateau through years of consistency and will eventually come around.

Take a look at Tom Brady. For the first five weeks of the season, he had looked a shell of his glory days. Then came the Titans and their porous pass defense. Six touchdowns and a season-high 380 yards later, plus another solid game against the Buccaneers, put Brady at #12 in my league's scoring format (#5 among QBs).

Now there comes a time when owners have to take a hard look at their underperforming studs. Matt Forte was a near unianimous first-rounder: an RB who was a factor in the passing game and who had no viable challenger to him for touches. Yet as we roll into Week 8, Forte ranks only 27th among RBs in my league and 69th overall. Forte's yards-per-carry is lower than last year (3.5 to 3.9), but a huge difference is scoring only 1 TD, which is far off the pace from duplicating 12 from a year ago.

Given that nearly half the season is over, it might be time to trade Forte. But beware.

Like I posted earlier, I had a fellow owner who had had enough of Roddy White, a unanimous top-10 WR this season. After disappointing for the first three weeks, White came off his bye and produced a monster 210-yard, 2-TD performance. Mike couldn't sell fast enough, proposing a trade for Kurt Warner (he had poor JaMarcus Russell as his QB2).

How's that trade working out? White has scored 12.2 and 12.8 in back-to-back weeks, while Warner has scored 21 points during the same span. Given that we start two QBs, it could be said that Warner is more valuable than White. But I like White as someone in his prime (we can keep three players) and was worried about Warner's injury/health history.

White's re-emergence allowed me to trade Calvin Johnson and get a solid RB in Rashard Mendenhall. It's been a win-win so far -- which is how I like my trades best. It's up to you as a fantasy owner to know when to hold on and when to cut bait.

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