Fantasy hockey: Young talent

The transformation of my dynasty league team over the weekend was mostly a success. I added three players, missing out on my top choice. These guys should probably be on a watch list for non-keeper leagues:

• Patric Hornqvist, F, Predators: He's skating on a scoring line and getting time on the first power-play unit. He didn't show much in his rookie season last year, but the 22-year-old showed he could score as a junior in his native Sweden, breaking Peter Forsberg's record for 19-year-olds. I got outbid on him in our weekly Monday morning auction.
  
• Martin Hanzal, F, Coyotes: This 22-year-old has thrived skating on an all-former Czechoslovakia line, with Petr Prucha and Radim Vrbata. He's a 6-5, 210-pound center who was a former first-round pick in 2005, which speaks to his upside. It's encouraging that Hanzal has shown good defensive awareness; he's plus-4 with 5 assists in his last 6 games.
  
• Josh Bailey, F, Islanders: This 19-year-old was the 9th overall pick in 2008 and is skating with two other outstanding youngsters: John Tavares and Kyle Okposo. He does however play on a poor Islanders team, so struggles are to be expected. Bailey can play on the left, though right now he's centering.
• Cody Franson, D, Predators: Nashville has a terrific track record of drafting and developing blue liners, and it appears this 22-year-old is destined to be a top-four defenseman. He's a 6-4, 205-pounder who gets power-play time despite skating on the third pairing. Franson scored 88 points in 152 AHL games, which indicates he could be a respectable NHL D-man.

In my non-keeper league, I was able to add Franson and Brandon Yip. A 24-year-old who played for Boston University last year, the right wing has filled in well for the injured Milan Hejduk. Yip has 11 points in 15 games. Since I'm out of playoff contention, I wanted to add interesting players -- and Yip qualifies since he's three-quarters Chinese (I'm 100 percent).

Faced with a salary cap, I might not be able to sign more players before season's end, since adding means buying out some veterans. Once I'm done adding, I'll disclose my full watch list.

Next year is now

In the third year of my dynasty hockey league, I found out what it felt like to really look ahead to next year. In the last two years, I've been trying to strengthen my roster for the postseason. I made the final twice, only to lose.

This year, my team ranked 4th out of 6 in my conference when the top 3 make the playoffs. At 7-8 and one game behind the third-place team, I had to try to forecast how the remainder of the season would turn out. Given that the top two point-scoring teams are in my conference, the chances of representing the Campbell in the final looked remote.

Fortunately for me, I had three players on the last year of their two-year contracts who would be attractive to teams trying to make a push. The players in question -- Mikko Koivu, Christian Ehrhoff and Kyle Quincey -- were at below-market prices, but would be costly to re-sign, even with a hometown discount in free agency.

My goal was to acquire good, young talent and position myself for a playoff run next year. I was able to land both my targets: Brandon Dubinsky (the subject of my first very post here) and David Backes. I took on a bloated contract in Slava Kozlov, whom I will buy out, in order to make the Dubinsky deal work, but I got two youngsters at very reasonable salaries for next year.

Now the next task is to buy out more bad contracts and add more young players. Our weekly waivers run Monday, so I'll report on players whom I hopefully added and others on my radar screen.

Playing out the string

For the first time since the Bare Naked Hockey League (the one with my high school buddies from Dracut) went to a head-to-head/playoff format, I'll miss the postseason. With six weeks left to our regular season, I'm left playing spoiler. Even though I'm last out of 12 teams, I thought I had a chance at the 7th and last playoff position, but then I remembered that's based on points scored and not record (which is the basis of the top six spots).

As far as looking to next year, we're allowed to keep up to two players for the following season and there's not much suspense there. I'll likely keep Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar, who are the #5 and #9 forwards in our scoring system.

Also in contention are Shea Weber, Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk. Weber warrants serious consideration since he is my top defenseman. He checks in as the No. 10, and his 246 points is 4 ahead of Datsyuk, my disappointing first-round pick, and 24 behind Sedin, my #4 skater.

My Achilles' heel this season was definitely my goaltending. Steve Mason sunk me as the #33 goalie this season as my fifth-round pick, while Tim Thomas, my third-round draft pick, has underperformed as the #17 goalie. Jon Quick, my reserve-round goalie, ranks 10th at the position, but hasn't proven himself to the point where he'd be in keeper territory (a la Brodeur or a Luongo).

I'll have an update on my dynasty league, including the breakdown of a trade.

Fantasy pets

The term 'fantasy pet' is used to describe fantasy owners' favorite players who always seem to end up on their rosters.

For me in hockey, that player has always been Alexei Kovalev. As a Rangers fan, I fell in love with his high-end talent. Even as he frustratingly showed only flashes of brilliance, I stuck with his potential. I likened my affection for him with my friend Adam's stubborn faith in Oliver Perez, an underachieving pitcher: we stick with these players because we see a little bit of ourselves in them. Their ability raises people's expectations, yet it's difficult to reach that high level of consistency.

I was rewarded with some fantastic seasons from Kovalev's time with the Penguins and later the Canadiens. For the record, Kovy has scored just over a point per game in nearly 1,200 NHL games in a 16-year career.

In my non-keeper league this year, however, I finally cut bait on Kovalev. At 4-10 and in last place of a 12-team league, I had to give up potential for production. It appears unlikely that Kovalev will be able to turn up his production (29 points in 44 games), considering the Senators' injuries to the likes of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek.

On the other hand, I've rostered Milan Lucic on my keeper league. The tough guy's offensive upside is limited (he'll probably put up 50-something points in a career year), but I simply love watching him play. I decided that I needed him on my team because if I was going to root for him in real life, I might as well try to get something out of him, fantasy-wise.

Conversely, there's such a thing as fantasy hate. For years I tried to avoid rostering Canadiens -- with Kovalev being the exception. As a Red Sox fan, I've tried to avoid Yankees, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Especially in a shallow player pool like my AL-only auction league, over the years I couldn't pass up bargain prices on Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams, among the most notable.

But one of the great things about fantasy sports that it helps break down barriers. It's easy for the non-fantasy fan to hate, but fantasy is about performance. And if a Canadien or a Yankee can help me win a title or finish in the money, welcome!

New year

I've never been one to make New Year's resolutions; why wait for a change in the calendar in order to effect change? And certainly the way my fantasy hockey seasons have gone, I could use a change.

Instead, I'm taking the opportunity to write about how thankful I am for the role that fantasy sports plays in my life. Namely, friendships. There are a number of 'fantasy' friends whom I've never met in person, but whom I'd be more comfortable around than other guys I've known for years. It's helped strengthened the bond with my best friend, Bill. It's helped me stay connected with my high school friends, as difficult as it may be to do with so many years and miles between us.

In a busy, demanding life that involves raising my two children, I have little time for hobbies. Fantasy sports has always been mine. I can still remember tracking my hockey team after the death of my grandmother in 1995 -- it was the one 'normal' thing that helped me from falling apart. And after my dad passed away unexpectedly a little more than two years ago, checking my player updates in baseball and football was among the little things that helped me find a sense of normalcy in the terrible aftermath.

So before I start getting really sappy, I'll paraphrasing one of my favorite songs off the Glee Cast albums (shameless plug) and say my life would suck without you.

Make your list (sort of) and check it twice

One thing that makes it easier while playing in a league with daily transactions is setting your lineup ahead of time. I usually set my hockey lineup for the entire week on Monday. Only last week, I didn't check my lineup after making a move after that.

Last week I put the Bruins' Dennis Wideman on the injured list. The problem was that change reset my lineup before my initial changes (thanks, CBS Sports) and left out a 24-point game from Niklas Backstrom (one goal allowed in a win), a 22-point game from Brad Boyes (three assists) and a 13-point game from Kyle Quincey. The loss of those 59 points would have made the difference in a 6.5-point loss.

That defeat, my third in a row, leaves me in 4th place out of 6 in my conference. At 5-6, I'm one game out of third place, which earns the last playoff spot. As this is a keeper league, a few more losses and I'll have to consider trading for the future instead of for the playoffs.

As for my other hockey league, I've won twice a row. I'm still 3-8 and still in last place, but am out of the last playoff spot by 170 points. The top six teams by record make the playoffs, with the seventh spot going to the remaining team with the most points (the top seed earns a first-round bye).

Goaltending is still a problem and my defensemen seemingly can't get hot at the same time, but my forwards are starting to come around. Daniel Sedin has been brilliant since coming back from injury, and guys like Patrick Kane, David Backes and old favorite Alexei Kovalev have been very good the last two weeks.

It's a full slate of games tonight, but the NHL is off on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Make sure to check those lineups for the rest of the week ... have a merry one.

Start up the hot stove

While most fantasy owners are focusing on their football, basketball and hockey teams, there's a select few who are thinking baseball.

One of the best things about being in a keeper baseball league is the activity that occurs in the offseason, even in the dead of winter. With four new owners in our 20-team league, there was a dispersal draft that started the last day of November. So for us returning owners, we were able to release players in November instead of waiting until in the spring. Trading has opened, and there are amendments on the table, most notably on balancing the hitting and pitching scoring and stat modifiers.

It should be said that this is a full keeper league that can sometimes be referred to as a 'sim' league, because it is very much a simulation of happens in real-life baseball. We owners have every player under contract and work within a luxury tax/salary cap system.

For example, I just executed a trade that could very well happen in real life. The deal was a simple one-for-one involving two minor leaguers who could break through in 2010. I dealt Cardinals prospects David Freese for Dodgers prospect Joshua Lindblom.

Freese's name might be vaguely familiar; he was arrested this week on driving under the influence. I was surprised an owner inquired about him; it turns out he was trying to trade for his upside of being in the middle of the St. Louis lineup. Last season the third baseman had an impressive .931 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in 227 minor-league at-bats, as well as an .837 OPS in 31 MLB at-bats (anything over .800 is considered very good). Freese will also turn 27 in April, which is the age that is considered to be the peak year for major leaguers.

So why did I deal him? I sensed an owner who coveted my player and was willing to trade a similarly good prospect. For me, that player was Josh Lindblom, a 6-5, 220-pound right-hander who is said to have a good shot at making the Dodgers as their No. 5 starter or a middle reliever. The 22-year-old had OK numbers as a starter at Double-A last year, but shined in the bullpen in the Triple-A, hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Like with stocks, you want to buy low and sell high while trading. Noah, one of the new owners, felt he was buying low on Freese. I feel like I'm buying low on Lindblom. As always, the proof will come in the numbers.

As for the Red Sox's offseason moves, I'll get to them when the dust appears to settle on Theo Epstein's grand plan. The team doesn't seem to be done remaking the roster yet.