Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Is it time to sell low?

As the owner of Tim Thomas and Steve Mason, I'm one frustrated fantasy hockey owner. When your second- and fifth-round draft picks are flops after the first two months, it can explain a lot of your struggles.

Recently I had to evaluate how low I was on that duo when a fellow owner was looking for a goalie. I was trying to peddle Brian Elliott, who will be the Senators' starter after a freak injury to Pascal Leclaire. While I didn't expect Doug (who also owns Leclaire) to bite on trading John-Michael Liles, who just came back from an injury, straight up for Elliott, I didn't expect that he'd inquire about Thomas or S.Mason.

Our 12-team league scoring system has evolved over the last 15 years to the point where goalie losses are not penalized; at least we haven't eliminated goalies entirely (it was actually discussed, albeit briefly) or gone to starting only one. Not surprisingly goalies have been among league's leading scorers the last several years, and thus my draft strategy involving Thomas and S.Mason.

Understand that my team is mired in last place, both in record (1-7) and points scored. If I have any chance of getting into the playoffs (there is, after all, two-thirds of the season left), I'll need strong goaltending. So I decided to keep the upside of my goalies over improving my defense corps; Doug, to his credit, was willing to discuss Liles and Sergei Gonchar. Maybe if he could have included a decent goalie in the deal (Jon Quick is the other goalie on my roster), I would have considered the proposal further.

In general it's hard to sell low, with getting proper value being the most difficult thing to gauge. As I've posted previously, try to stick with your studs and give them a chance to come through. Here's hoping I'm right in this case.

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