Fantasy hockey: Trade impact

Since the NHL trading deadline last week didn't produce any big moves, this is a good time to evaluate the spate of blockbuster trades that nearly two months ago. Oddly enough most of the players involved had connections to my two teams. And now that I've given them time to play nearly a dozen games, this is a good time to check in on their fantasy values:

• Dion Phaneuf (Flames to Maple Leafs): Thumbs down. He went from one of the best teams in the Western Conference to one of the worst in the Eastern. Even though he'll be logging more minutes, particularly on the power play, Phaneuf will be surrounded by a lesser cast of players. Two assists and a minus-1 in 11 games doesn't leave me hopeful for someone whom I extended to a three-year contract in the offseason.
  
• Matt Stajan (Maple Leafs to Flames): The principal player to Calgary in the above deal, Stajan nearly got added to both my keeper and non-keeper teams due to possible first-line time with Jarome Iginla. Instead the centerman has continued to produce at his recent levels, with his 8 points in 12 Flames games right in line with his pace with the Leafs the last season and a half. The same is true for Jason Blake, whom Toronto flipped to Anaheim.
  
• Olli Jokinen (Flames to Rangers): I don't own the centerman, but his acquisition casted a pall on the value of Brandon Dubinsky, whom I had just traded for in my dynasty league. The fear was that Jokinen would center the first line, bumping Dubs to the second. Instead coach John Tortorella kept Dubs next to star winger Marian Gaborik and tried to have Jokinen form a legitimate second line that the Rangers have been lacking. Jokinen has responded with a 2-7-9 pace in 11 games that is the best in three seasons.
• Ilya Kovalchuk (Thrashers to Devils): As one of the owners of the left wing, I hoped the Russian would have landed in a more offensive environment. He's produced 8 points in 10 games, but that's still below his point-per-game pace over his career. The Devils are still shuffling their lines, with Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner as the current solutions.
• Niclas Bergfors (Devils to Thrashers): I was very high on the 22-year-old in 2009, but the new year was not kind to the Swede as his minutes and production diminished. It turned out getting out of Jacques Lemaire's doghouse was the trick, as Bergfors has produced a 6-2-8 in 11 games. An unexpected beneficiary has been Thrashers wing Bryan Little, who clicked with Bergfors and could be line for more minutes.

As for the March 3 trades, there weren't many eventful ones. As the Bruins' move of acquiring Dennis Seidenberg, it's a case of a better trade in real life than in fantasy. The former Panther scored at a 0.4 per game pace the last season and a half, and doesn't seem poised to exceed that with 1 point in 4 games so far.

Fantasy baseball: Why I passed on Hanley at #2

The consensus No. 2 draft pick in fantasy baseball drafts is one-time Red Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez, right behind Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.

Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!

No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.

I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.

And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.

Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.

I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.

Fantasy baseball: Book-worthy

Rare are the books on fantasy (or rotisserie, to be old school) baseball that are worth buying because the perception is that they're out of date -- and this was before the Internet. In recent years, the surviving books concentrate more on the methodology of forecasting future performance.

I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.

The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.

As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.

The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.

Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.

Fantasy baseball: Magazine advice

It's difficult to walk into a bookstore these days without avoiding the dozen or so fantasy baseball magazine covers trying to tempt you into plopping down $8 or so for them. So what should factor in your decision to buy?

First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.

Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.

For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.

The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.

Fantasy hockey: Back to the grind

After an unprecedented two-week midseason break, I'm ready for some NHL games again. Yes, the Olympics produced some great action, but alas there are no fantasy points to be had.

Brian Rafalski owners will hope the Red Wings defenseman will show the same goal-scoring touch as he did in Vancouver. Normally a reliable double-digit goal-scorer, the 36-year-old has only 4 goals in 57 games -- the same number he had in 6 Olympic games for the United States.

Owners of Wings and Avalanche players who played in the Olympics will be at a disadvantage tonight, as the two teams square off in the first post-break game. There's no reliable evidence to suggest that Olympians suffer from having to play up to 6 intense games in a 14-day period, so you shouldn't consider benching your top players who might have participated. If you've got to choose between an Olympian and a non-Olympian, you might want to consider the player who had a two-week rest -- particularly those who might have been snubbed (Martin St. Louis and his ilk) and might have a little more fire to get back on the ice.

For most leagues, there are only two weeks left in most regular seasons, with the last 4 weeks devoted to the fantasy playoffs. The next big date to mark on your calendar Wednesday's trade deadline at 3 p.m.; may any of your swapped players land in better situations.

Next we might take a look at some of the principals in the flurry of blockbuster trades, now that they've had 5 or so games with the new teams.

Fantasy hockey: Don't stop checking

I might be in rebuilding mode when it comes to my dynasty league and concentrating on picking up youngsters, but never can a fantasy owner pass up a bargain.

In this case, that'd be Sami Salo. The Canucks defenseman was on the waiver wire when he came back from a groin injury that had sidelined him for a week. He averaged nearly 25 minutes in three games, including over 3 minutes of power play time. The 35-year-old has flown a little under the fantasy radars for years, mostly because he's had the potential tag on him for so long due to his big booming shot and not produced as desired. But he was 2-5-7 in 8 January games with a plus-6 for the No. 3 team in the Western Conference.

I was able to add another player, one whom I had teased about two posts ago: Tyler Bozak. The 23-year-old was a prized free agent after starring at the University of Denver for two years. The Maple Leafs won the race for his signature and gave him an extended look in January, where he was a 1-4-5 in 10 games that month. The thing that was encouraging about Bozak was that he was given a lot of power-play time. Now he's centering Phil Kessel after the trade of Matt Stajan to the Flames, and he's promptly responded with a line of 1-3-4 in 3 February games, including back-to-back ones against the stingy Devils. He's also been averaging a healthy 19 minutes of ice time.

I've got one more player I'd like to stash before his value might heat up in the offseason, but I've got to find another player on my roster that I can afford to buy out.

Fantasy baseball: Let the bidding begin

The first of February has come, and that means the start of free agency bidding in my dynasty baseball league.

Even though I've got a pretty full roster that I could start the season with if needed, it's still fun to check our message board to see the bidding process. It's done, auction-style, with winning bids needing to stand for a full 7 days (we do have provisions for bids done toward the end of the bidding process and that can't stand for the 168 hours).

It can be nerve-racking to see whether any of the other 19 owners have decided to top your bid. I found it's best to avoid topping a bid right away -- especially if you know the other owner is online. That leads to confrontation, and a lot of times owners will bid right back. Getting into a bidding war most likely will drive up the price on a player artificially too high -- much to the delight of the other 17 or 18 owners. Given that we work with a payroll system with luxury tax, overspending $1 million or two can be costly.

It's tough to find good values in free agency bidding. I'll likely wait toward the end of the period, which ends March 22. Once the big players are rostered and there are fewer roster spots to fill, bargains will begin to emerge.