Showing posts with label Bruins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bruins. Show all posts

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Fantasy fallout from the biggest choke job in NHL history

So the unbelievable has happened ... the Boston Bruins blew a 3-0 lead in a best-of-7 series AND a 3-0 lead in Game 7 (on home ice, to boot).

Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.

At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.

Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.

OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.

Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.

When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.

Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).

Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).

Let's look at some of the more dubious players.

Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).

Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.

Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.

In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.

Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Fantasy hockey: Trade impact

Since the NHL trading deadline last week didn't produce any big moves, this is a good time to evaluate the spate of blockbuster trades that nearly two months ago. Oddly enough most of the players involved had connections to my two teams. And now that I've given them time to play nearly a dozen games, this is a good time to check in on their fantasy values:

  • Dion Phaneuf (Flames to Maple Leafs): Thumbs down. He went from one of the best teams in the Western Conference to one of the worst in the Eastern. Even though he'll be logging more minutes, particularly on the power play, Phaneuf will be surrounded by a lesser cast of players. Two assists and a minus-1 in 11 games doesn't leave me hopeful for someone whom I extended to a three-year contract in the offseason.
  • Matt Stajan (Maple Leafs to Flames): The principal player to Calgary in the above deal, Stajan nearly got added to both my keeper and non-keeper teams due to possible first-line time with Jarome Iginla. Instead the centerman has continued to produce at his recent levels, with his 8 points in 12 Flames games right in line with his pace with the Leafs the last season and a half. The same is true for Jason Blake, whom Toronto flipped to Anaheim.
  • Olli Jokinen (Flames to Rangers): I don't own the centerman, but his acquisition casted a pall on the value of Brandon Dubinsky, whom I had just traded for in my dynasty league. The fear was that Jokinen would center the first line, bumping Dubs to the second. Instead coach John Tortorella kept Dubs next to star winger Marian Gaborik and tried to have Jokinen form a legitimate second line that the Rangers have been lacking. Jokinen has responded with a 2-7-9 pace in 11 games that is the best in three seasons.
  • Ilya Kovalchuk (Thrashers to Devils): As one of the owners of the left wing, I hoped the Russian would have landed in a more offensive environment. He's produced 8 points in 10 games, but that's still below his point-per-game pace over his career. The Devils are still shuffling their lines, with Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner as the current solutions.
  • Niclas Bergfors (Devils to Thrashers): I was very high on the 22-year-old in 2009, but the new year was not kind to the Swede as his minutes and production diminished. It turned out getting out of Jacques Lemaire's doghouse was the trick, as Bergfors has produced a 6-2-8 in 11 games. An unexpected beneficiary has been Thrashers wing Bryan Little, who clicked with Bergfors and could be line for more minutes.
As for the March 3 trades, there weren't many eventful ones. As the Bruins' move of acquiring Dennis Seidenberg, it's a case of a better trade in real life than in fantasy. The former Panther scored at a 0.4 per game pace the last season and a half, and doesn't seem poised to exceed that with 1 point in 4 games so far.