Fantasy Island

USA/England after Memorial Day weekend

2010-06-01T17:36:00.000-04:00

The favorites to advance out of Group C had mixed results again after their latest friendlies over Memorial Day weekend, but this time it's the United States that emerged looking better.

The Americans' first half against Turkey was dismal, yet there was a lot to take away from Bob Bradley's second-half substitutions. Jose Torres was much more influential than Benny Feilhaber on the left side of midfield, as was Stuart Holden over Ricardo Clark in the center of midfield. Robbie Findley offered a spark up front and started the play that resulted in Jozy Altidore's goal (he should thank the Turkish keeper for a terrible decision to stray far off his line). Outside backs Jonathan Bornstein and Steve Cherundolo played better than Carlos Bocanegra and Jonathan Spector, offering more spark moving forward and defending the flank area better.

England looked pedestrian the following day against a World Cup-bound Japan side that was not the equal of Turkey, who failed to qualify. England's passing in midfield was atrocious, though the insertion of Steven Gerrard in a deep midfield role greatly improved that department. Wayne Rooney was forced to track back too deep to be much of a factor, and his two strike partners were not a factor. Theo Walcott's performance at right midfield was dire enough for him to be dropped by Fabio Capello, and Aaron Lennon looked out of place on the left. The first-team defense hardly dominated as they should have. Joe Hart continues to be in the most in-form England keeper, though it still seems unlikely he will start.

The USA still has a friendly left, on June 5 against Australia, and the most pressing matter is whether Bradley will give those second-half subs a more extended look.

Don't forget what you learned from the club season

2010-05-31T22:53:00.001-04:00

Players on the 32 World Cup rosters are undergoing more scrutiny than at any point of the year, but people should not discard what they've done over 10 months with their clubs. Those of us who watch the players of their favorite clubs over 30-something matches that have a certain affinity for their players.

Evaluating such players with honesty, rather than homerism, will help you better judge their place and their country's chances. I'll start this exercise with Chelsea, my favorite club. The Blues are one of the biggest clubs in the world and have a bevy of players who are headed to South Africa.

France, besides drawing ire from much of the sporting world for that infamous hand ball against Ireland, was not showing well for much of the World Cup buildup until their lame-duck coach, Raymond Domenech, surprisingly switched formations. His 4-3-3 that puts forward Nicolas Anelka and left-sided midfielder Florent Malouda into positions where they thrived for Chelsea. I still don't fancy France getting past the second round, but they're lucky they're in a weak Group A that they will likely win.

Given that Portugal is supposedly relying on Deco to orchestrate in the center of the park and Ricardo Carvalho to be a bedrock in the center of defense, this does not bode well for Cristiano Ronaldo's side. Both players have been out of form with Chelsea, with Carvalho at least able to cite injury. Some solace can be found with Paulo Ferreira, who was solid but not spectacular at right back over the last month. Their FIFA ranking is high, but I see the Portuguese being the odd man out in the Group of Death. Which leads us to ...

Ivory Coast, who is powered by Didier Drogba, one of the top strikers in the world. Fellow forward Salomon Kalou had some productive games for Chelsea over the last two months, but at times showed his propensity for blowing easy chances. I see the Ivorians finishing second in Group G.

In Group D, Serbia is one of my darkhorse teams in this year's tournament, and Branislav Ivanovic is part of the reason. The right back can deputize as a central defender and offers a threat in the penalty area on set pieces. But it's the Serbs' commitment to attacking that has me stoked for their chances in Group D. I see them advancing out of the group. Speaking of Group D, two other sides have suffered devastating injuries to talismanic players.

Germany has lost captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury; his box-to-box play is irreplaceable. The Germans are famous for their tournament acumen, but Ballack's absence could deprive them of enough quality to make the semifinals. Ghana lost its captain, Michael Essien, due to a knee injury; it's a wonder Chelsea achieved so much this year without their holding midfielder. It's important to remember that Ghana made it to the African Nations Cup final without Essien, so they have proven they can achieve things without his influence. Still it'll be difficult to choose Ghana to advance over Germany.

Another CFC midfielder, John Obi Mikel, is injured and might not be able to play for his country, though Nigeria has included him in its final roster. Even if Mikel was healthy, Chelsea fans have to shudder to learn that the Super Eagles are likely to use him in an attacking midfield role. His sometimes shoddy passing as a holding midfielder is something we've put up with; I can't imagine a team relying on Mikel to unlock defenses and create. I am not tipping Nigeria to advance out of Group B.

Slovakia has a Chelsea player whom many people forget is registered with the club: Miroslav Stoch. The left-sided attacking player did well on loan with FC Twente in Holland and was important to the Slovaks' qualifying campaign. Slovakia stands a good chance of advancing out of Group F; the team has an easier opener than Paraguay before they meet in the second group game.

Last, but not least is England. Deposed captain John Terry has not looked like the rock he once was before his infidelity scandal. Frank Lampard missed a penalty against Japan, and Chelsea fans won't forget his PK misses against Manchester City and Portsmouth, the latter nearly costing the team the FA Cup final. The midfielder occupies a different role with the national team and has not been able to replicate his same goal-scoring form.

Ashley Cole is clearly the country's best left back, but it remains whether he is fully recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him for much of this calendar year. Cole also is not given as much license to venture as deep into the attacking third as he does with Chelsea. Joe Cole's role under coach Fabio Capello is still unclear, but it seems the midfielder will likely win a spot on the bench given his performance as a reserve against Japan. I see England topping Group C, with a run into semifinals being realistic.

I've included Joe Cole in this discussion, but will not delve into players who stand no chance of going to South Africa like Hilario (Portugal), Alex (Brazil), etc.

Now what about your favorite players and club teams? How do their national teams stand?

Scouting USA and England after their first friendly

2010-05-26T20:54:00.003-04:00

With the USA and England both not featuring their full sides in their respective friendlies against the Czech Republic and Mexico this week, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions before their June 12 first-round match in the World Cup.

The most troubling sign for the USA was the performance of Oguchi Onyewu. The big central defender allowed a far-post header on a corner kick for a goal, which does not bode well given England's strength in the air.

The English were lucky to be ahead 2-0 at halftime as they allowed too much possession to the Mexicans. A header by Ledley King and another goal in the penalty area by Peter Crouch (on an attempted header that clumsily went off his midsection) masked the team's inability to close down space and time for Mexico, whose failure to finish could haunt them in Group A.

Bob Bradley has already announced his 23-man squad, so let's hope the Americans can show better on Saturday against Turkey in Philadelphia. It's time to see how he will use Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan in the attacking positions.

On Sunday England plays Japan, which did not show well against South Korea in its friendly this week, and it'll be interesting to see whether Fabio Capello will try out more fringe players on the squad before announcing his final 23-man roster by the June 1 FIFA cutoff.

Among those who were rested by Capello were the Chelsea contingent since they were coming off the FA Cup final. My next post will be about using the knowledge from your club football to help you foresee the opening stages of the World Cup.

Fantasy fallout from the biggest choke job in NHL history

2010-05-15T11:58:00.002-04:00

So the unbelievable has happened ... the Boston Bruins blew a 3-0 lead in a best-of-7 series AND a 3-0 lead in Game 7 (on home ice, to boot).

Actually if you followed Boston closely, you should have anticipated the team's play trending down. For starters, season-ending injuries to two top-six forwards on the NHL's lowest-scoring team was bound to show up.

At the same time, let's not overestimate the value of David Krejci or Marco Sturm. Krejci had a good-but-not great 52-point regular season in his age-24 season while Sturm's paltry 22 goals led the B's in 76 games. Krejci was enjoying a solid playoff (4-4-8 in 9 games) while Sturm did not score, but no Krejci and Sturm meant more Trent Whitfield and Shawn Thornton. The effects of the subsequent line-juggling showed in a lackluster breakout and not enough time cycling in the opposing zone.

Staying with the forwards: don't be fooled by the postseasons of Mark Recchi or Miroslav Satan. Both are unrestricted free agents next season, with the 42-year-old Recchi possibly opting to retire. Recchi showed his veteran grittiness by showing up when it counted in the playoffs, but his limitations showed in the last three games of Flyers' series (one assist) when the Bruins didn't possess the puck long enough for him to do his best work in the low slot. Satan, no spring chicken himself at 35, seemed most affected by the loss of Krejci, his linemate and fellow Czechoslovakian; he was pointless in the final four games. Still, the right wing probably showed enough to be brought back on the cheap but keep in mind his regular-season numbers: 9-5-14 in 38 games.

OK, enough gloom ... let's look at some of the positives. Dennis Wideman put up a 1-11-12 in 13 playoff games. After a horrendous 2009, the 27-year-old defenseman turned it around in 2010, Wideman produced 3-12-15 in the final 29 regular-season games. While it might be much to expect Wideman to approach the 50-point mark as he reached in '09 (unless he's paired again with Zdeno Chara), an improvement over his 30 points last season is almost a certainty and a bounceback into the 40s should be reasonable.

Fellow blueliner Johnny Boychuk showed signs he can sustain his age-26 season into next season. Boychuk earned 26 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time while putting up a point every other game -- the standard for defenseman -- in 13 playoff games (2-4-6). The 6-2, 225-pounder, who scored 65 points in 78 AHL games the previous season with Providence, played sound hockey and showed signs of being a game-changer with some of his hits.

When the play got more physical from the Sabres' series to the Flyers one, Milan Lucic's game blossomed. The left wing went from going pointless against Buffalo to scoring 5 goals and adding 2 assists against Philly. Let's hope Looch, who turns 22 on June 7, can avoid the injuries that ruined his '09-10 regular season.

Patrice Bergeron stepped up his game, producing 4-7-11 in 10 games before being shut out in the last three games. Remember that Bergy, who turns 25 in July, is capable of scoring nearly a point per game; he did so in the '06 and '07 seasons before that infamous concussion. The centerman helped carry Boston in March, netting 13 points in 14 games, and finished with a 52-point regular season (in 73 games).

Zdeno Chara might draw some blame as captain of a team that lost in such epic proportions, but do many people think he underperformed? He logged 28 minutes of ice, scored a point every other playoff game (7 in 13) and, more importantly, was one of the better defenseman over an 80-game regular season (7-37-44, plus-19).

Let's look at some of the more dubious players.

Those who rely solely on the numbers might be OK with Matt Hunwick, but don't be deceived. The defenseman, who turns 25 on the 21st, put up 0-6-6 in 13 playoff games, but did not look confident getting the puck out of his own end, particularly from behind his goal line. Hunwick will have to show whether he's as good as his '09 season (27 points in 53 games) or as poor as his '10 (14 points in 76).

Blake Wheeler, unlike some teammates who helped erase a mediocre regular season, did not redeem himself in the postseason. On a team lacking in quality wings, Wheeler, who turns 24 in August, did not forcefully grab a spot in the top six, tallying 6 points in 13 games. Even worse, the 6-5, 205-pounder was not physical or gritty enough of a presence.

Marc Savard, despite triggering the too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty, should get a free pass. It was great just to have the centerman come back from injury, even if he was only able to put 3 points in 7 games. He's a proven point-per-game player when healthy.

In goal, the playoff numbers for Tuukka Rask look mediocre: 2.61 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. Fifteen goals in 4 straight losses will do that. The 23-year-old looked more unnerved at any other point in the season. He usually looks so composed and efficient in his movement, but Rask looked more like Tim Thomas than himself scrambling in his crease against Philadelphia. While he showed he can help carry a series as he did against Buffalo, it's clear Boston will need to carry a quality No. 2 next season to spell him. The 169-pounder played 45 games in the regular season, but handling all 829 minutes of the Bruins' postseason and, as well as the accumulated effect of the offensive deficiencies, accounted for his decline in numbers.

Bruins fans can at least look forward to the NHL Entry Draft on June 25. when the team selects second overall. Let's hope the Oilers let winger Taylor Hall fall instead of center Tyler Seguin. Boston is deeper at center, but ultimately the team will be glad if Seguin turns out to be productive. Whichever stud is selected will undoubtedly have the pressure of making an immediate impact after such an epic failure, but let's hope expectations can be tempered.

Think about your league's payout

2010-04-19T23:20:00.000-04:00

Most fantasy baseball leagues that play in a head-to-head format pay out the same way: the majority of the pot goes to the postseason champion and the losing finalist getting half that amount. But is that the fairest way toward paying out?

Given that we're only in the third week of the season, consider whether it's too late to discuss this with your commissioner and fellow owners. As much as many of us play for the thrill of the competition, it is nice to get a proper chunk of change if you do well.

My biggest problem with the traditional payoff is that it discounts too much of the regular season. Everybody plays for 21 weeks, yet your league champion can simply be the best playoff team in September. On the flip side the overemphasis on the playoffs can lead to dominant teams falling victim to a fluke -- which has happened to be twice in fantasy hockey.

It's one thing to try to mirror how the World Series champ is decided, but one can only go so far in making fantasy like reality. And the reality is that there are generally 2-4 owners who have managed well enough to earn a good chunk of change -- and we're not talking about your traditional third-place owner merely making his money back or just earning a little more than that.

I was able to pitch to my commish and fellow owners that a payoff that balanced the two seasons was the best route. So in my daily 10-team non-keeper league, the regular-season wins/loss champion gets 25%, the regular-season points champion gets 25% and the postseason champion gets the remaining 50%.

Given the amount of luck involved in matchups, paying out to the points champion rewards the owner who is snake bitten by close losses and/or bad luck. I like to say that the only thing us owners can control is our lineup and therefore our points scored. Things like the opponent and points against are factors we cannot control.

Since introducing the 25/25/50 payout to my leagues, I haven't heard a vociferous outcry against it. That's because it's the fairest way to monetarily reward the best owners. It should be noted that only once has an owner won all three pots -- now that's a truly dominant team.

Consider an offline draft

2010-03-31T14:53:00.000-04:00

Now that my 17-day (yes, SEVENTEEN) draft is over, I feel I can blog about fantasy baseball again. With at least two owners possibly reading, I didn't want to expose my hand during the draft.

As most people have already drafted with Opening Day (or Night, as is the case this year on Easter Sunday), perhaps this is a good time to consider what type of draft is best, rather than whether you drafted the right guys.

My latest fantasy draft was conducted offline on a message board. My first draft experience, some 15 years ago, was probably the best format: in-person auction. There's nothing like beers, pizza and face-to-face trash-talking. But as people relocate and new owners, possibly from outside your area, are recruited, in-person drafts can become a little impractical. I love the traditional online draft, which usually takes place over a 3- to 5-hour period, but getting 10 guys to be available for the same time slot can be difficult.

Thus the idea of doing an offline draft was brought up. Each owner was assigned two 30-minute time slots per day; for example, I picked in my odd-number rounds at 10 a.m. and my even rounds at 7 p.m.

So what are the advantages of drafting offline vs. online?

For starters, how many times have you uttered the phrase, "Draft day is the best day of the year." If so, why not take a day and extend it over two-plus weeks?
How many times have you felt rushed in making a pick? With roughly 8 hours between picks, there's plenty of time to research and readjust your draft list.
The deeper your draft extends into late March, the better your information will be. How many owners in early March felt good drafting Joe Nathan, only to have him injure his elbow and miss the 2010 season? Particularly if you're in a deep league (like my 10-team mixed league that rosters 33 players per team), the winners of the position, lineup and rotation battles will matter.

It'll be interesting to see whether we'll choose to draft offline next year if people are available for an online draft.

Fantasy hockey: Better luck next year

2010-03-15T21:36:00.002-04:00

Week 22 of the fantasy hockey season is upon us, and I'm sitting on the proverbial sidelines in both my leagues. It's the first time I've missed the playoffs, so it's an odd feeling. In a way, it's just as well since I've devoted most of my free time researching for my ongoing offline baseball draft.

Now I can sit back and root for my Bruins and Rangers, without much fantasy implication at all. Sure, one of my leagues is a keeper but there's plenty of time to look back at what I'll miss over the last dozen or so regular-season games. And I don't pay much mind to playoff stats; they usually don't indicate enough significance on next season.

Fantasy hockey: Trade impact

2010-03-12T20:33:00.000-05:00

Since the NHL trading deadline last week didn't produce any big moves, this is a good time to evaluate the spate of blockbuster trades that nearly two months ago. Oddly enough most of the players involved had connections to my two teams. And now that I've given them time to play nearly a dozen games, this is a good time to check in on their fantasy values:

Dion Phaneuf (Flames to Maple Leafs): Thumbs down. He went from one of the best teams in the Western Conference to one of the worst in the Eastern. Even though he'll be logging more minutes, particularly on the power play, Phaneuf will be surrounded by a lesser cast of players. Two assists and a minus-1 in 11 games doesn't leave me hopeful for someone whom I extended to a three-year contract in the offseason.
Matt Stajan (Maple Leafs to Flames): The principal player to Calgary in the above deal, Stajan nearly got added to both my keeper and non-keeper teams due to possible first-line time with Jarome Iginla. Instead the centerman has continued to produce at his recent levels, with his 8 points in 12 Flames games right in line with his pace with the Leafs the last season and a half. The same is true for Jason Blake, whom Toronto flipped to Anaheim.
Olli Jokinen (Flames to Rangers): I don't own the centerman, but his acquisition casted a pall on the value of Brandon Dubinsky, whom I had just traded for in my dynasty league. The fear was that Jokinen would center the first line, bumping Dubs to the second. Instead coach John Tortorella kept Dubs next to star winger Marian Gaborik and tried to have Jokinen form a legitimate second line that the Rangers have been lacking. Jokinen has responded with a 2-7-9 pace in 11 games that is the best in three seasons.
Ilya Kovalchuk (Thrashers to Devils): As one of the owners of the left wing, I hoped the Russian would have landed in a more offensive environment. He's produced 8 points in 10 games, but that's still below his point-per-game pace over his career. The Devils are still shuffling their lines, with Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner as the current solutions.
Niclas Bergfors (Devils to Thrashers): I was very high on the 22-year-old in 2009, but the new year was not kind to the Swede as his minutes and production diminished. It turned out getting out of Jacques Lemaire's doghouse was the trick, as Bergfors has produced a 6-2-8 in 11 games. An unexpected beneficiary has been Thrashers wing Bryan Little, who clicked with Bergfors and could be line for more minutes.

As for the March 3 trades, there weren't many eventful ones. As the Bruins' move of acquiring Dennis Seidenberg, it's a case of a better trade in real life than in fantasy. The former Panther scored at a 0.4 per game pace the last season and a half, and doesn't seem poised to exceed that with 1 point in 4 games so far.

Fantasy baseball: Why I passed on Hanley at #2

2010-03-10T23:09:00.002-05:00

The consensus No. 2 draft pick in fantasy baseball drafts is one-time Red Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez, right behind Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.

Yet when it was my turn to pick at No. 2, I went with Prince Fielder. Why?!

No doubt the Marlin is a great player at a position (shortstop) that is scarce of elite options. But my reasoning went like this: If I believe Pujols is the No. 1 pick and Fielder will finish right behind him as the No. 2 overall hitter, I should select him. ESPN, which is hosting our league, has Fielder as the No. 2 hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has Fielder finishing as the most valuable player. It should be noted that my league has an OPS-based scoring system; if it was a traditional 5x5 league, Hanley would have been the pick.

I must admit that I've never been a huge fan of Hanley, despite his stud status. I harbored worries about his lineup and pitcher-friendly home park -- even though those factors haven't detracted him before.

And this brings up a key thing in fantasy: You've got to live with your players. Especially with your early-round studs, you've got to believe in them. Fantasy is suppose to be fun after all, so if you're a Red Sox fan who doesn't want to root for any Yankees on your team -- don't pick 'em.

Another factor in my thinking was who would be available with my next two picks at No. 19 and 22. My plan was to pair Fielder with Troy Tulowitzki, the consensus No. 2 SS whom I coveted more than the available big bats late in the second round. Alas, Tulo was nabbed at No. 13. I settled for a top option at another scarce position (David Wright at 3B) and was pleasantly surprised to have Royals ace Zack Greinke for the taking with my third-rounder.

I'll be posting more on the draft, especially the advantages of doing it offline as we are now.

Fantasy baseball: Book-worthy

2010-03-08T23:13:00.000-05:00

Rare are the books on fantasy (or rotisserie, to be old school) baseball that are worth buying because the perception is that they're out of date -- and this was before the Internet. In recent years, the surviving books concentrate more on the methodology of forecasting future performance.

I own two of the more popular volumes: Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster.

The snob in me tried to poo-poo my first reading of the Forecaster, considering I've bought the telephone book-like BP for nearly a decade and started subscribing to the online version last season. But the more I dug into the Forecaster, the more I liked it -- even a little more than BP.

As much as I like BP, it's written more toward an aspiring front-office type. Only this year in its statistical introduction does it have short essays that are geared toward your beginning/novice fantasy owner. It took a little while to get used to Forecaster's jargon (Dominance is the K/9 rate, Control is the BB/9, Command is the K/BB rate, etc.) but I like that it's geared toward the fantasy owner.

The writing in BP is still sharp and witty, particularly in the player capsules. The team chapters still do an excellent job of breaking down what happened last season and what to expect. Ron Shandler, one of the oldest and most well-known fantasy analyst, does not lack in wit and sarcasm, either.

Together they teach what I believe to be a smarter way of looking at a player and helping you decide whether they're worthy of being on your fantasy roster. I'm glad I have both at my disposal -- along with my Fantasy Baseball Index magazine -- as I decide who to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in my upcoming draft. My 33-round draft, which will be done offline via a message board, starts Wednesday, and I'll provide updates throughout the process.

Fantasy baseball: Magazine advice

2010-03-03T22:26:00.000-05:00

It's difficult to walk into a bookstore these days without avoiding the dozen or so fantasy baseball magazine covers trying to tempt you into plopping down $8 or so for them. So what should factor in your decision to buy?

First, read the capsules on your favorite players. These are the guys you know best so if the writers' opinions and analysis jibe with what you're feeling, that's a good start.

Next, check out the statistics they use. Do they list the ones you rely on, besides the standard ones? For me, I look at OBP/SLUG/OPS for hitters and K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 for pitchers. Other stats that I want to hear about, if relevant: BABIP, ground ball rate, line drive rate and fly ball rate. The magazine has to speak your language, so to speak.

For me, the grayer and more boring the pages look, the better. I'm not a big believer in color pictures and fancy graphics -- they're not helping me win my league. I'm a word man -- I want analysis drawn from pertinent facts and trends.

The winner, for me, is Fantasy Baseball Index. It's the closest approximation to Baseball Prospectus (whose annual I rely on), and it comes several weeks beforehand. Next I'll discuss BP and another fantasy baseball book that's worth having next to you on draft day.

Fantasy hockey: Back to the grind

2010-03-01T14:03:00.000-05:00

After an unprecedented two-week midseason break, I'm ready for some NHL games again. Yes, the Olympics produced some great action, but alas there are no fantasy points to be had.

Brian Rafalski owners will hope the Red Wings defenseman will show the same goal-scoring touch as he did in Vancouver. Normally a reliable double-digit goal-scorer, the 36-year-old has only 4 goals in 57 games -- the same number he had in 6 Olympic games for the United States.

Owners of Wings and Avalanche players who played in the Olympics will be at a disadvantage tonight, as the two teams square off in the first post-break game. There's no reliable evidence to suggest that Olympians suffer from having to play up to 6 intense games in a 14-day period, so you shouldn't consider benching your top players who might have participated. If you've got to choose between an Olympian and a non-Olympian, you might want to consider the player who had a two-week rest -- particularly those who might have been snubbed (Martin St. Louis and his ilk) and might have a little more fire to get back on the ice.

For most leagues, there are only two weeks left in most regular seasons, with the last 4 weeks devoted to the fantasy playoffs. The next big date to mark on your calendar Wednesday's trade deadline at 3 p.m.; may any of your swapped players land in better situations.

Next we might take a look at some of the principals in the flurry of blockbuster trades, now that they've had 5 or so games with the new teams.

Fantasy hockey: Don't stop checking

2010-02-08T14:03:00.000-05:00

I might be in rebuilding mode when it comes to my dynasty league and concentrating on picking up youngsters, but never can a fantasy owner pass up a bargain.

In this case, that'd be Sami Salo. The Canucks defenseman was on the waiver wire when he came back from a groin injury that had sidelined him for a week. He averaged nearly 25 minutes in three games, including over 3 minutes of power play time. The 35-year-old has flown a little under the fantasy radars for years, mostly because he's had the potential tag on him for so long due to his big booming shot and not produced as desired. But he was 2-5-7 in 8 January games with a plus-6 for the No. 3 team in the Western Conference.

I was able to add another player, one whom I had teased about two posts ago: Tyler Bozak. The 23-year-old was a prized free agent after starring at the University of Denver for two years. The Maple Leafs won the race for his signature and gave him an extended look in January, where he was a 1-4-5 in 10 games that month. The thing that was encouraging about Bozak was that he was given a lot of power-play time. Now he's centering Phil Kessel after the trade of Matt Stajan to the Flames, and he's promptly responded with a line of 1-3-4 in 3 February games, including back-to-back ones against the stingy Devils. He's also been averaging a healthy 19 minutes of ice time.

I've got one more player I'd like to stash before his value might heat up in the offseason, but I've got to find another player on my roster that I can afford to buy out.

Fantasy baseball: Let the bidding begin

2010-02-01T11:58:00.000-05:00

The first of February has come, and that means the start of free agency bidding in my dynasty baseball league.

Even though I've got a pretty full roster that I could start the season with if needed, it's still fun to check our message board to see the bidding process. It's done, auction-style, with winning bids needing to stand for a full 7 days (we do have provisions for bids done toward the end of the bidding process and that can't stand for the 168 hours).

It can be nerve-racking to see whether any of the other 19 owners have decided to top your bid. I found it's best to avoid topping a bid right away -- especially if you know the other owner is online. That leads to confrontation, and a lot of times owners will bid right back. Getting into a bidding war most likely will drive up the price on a player artificially too high -- much to the delight of the other 17 or 18 owners. Given that we work with a payroll system with luxury tax, overspending $1 million or two can be costly.

It's tough to find good values in free agency bidding. I'll likely wait toward the end of the period, which ends March 22. Once the big players are rostered and there are fewer roster spots to fill, bargains will begin to emerge.

Fantasy hockey: Young talent

2010-01-28T14:22:00.001-05:00

The transformation of my dynasty league team over the weekend was mostly a success. I added three players, missing out on my top choice. These guys should probably be on a watch list for non-keeper leagues:

Patric Hornqvist, F, Predators: He's skating on a scoring line and getting time on the first power-play unit. He didn't show much in his rookie season last year, but the 22-year-old showed he could score as a junior in his native Sweden, breaking Peter Forsberg's record for 19-year-olds. I got outbid on him in our weekly Monday morning auction.
Martin Hanzal, F, Coyotes: This 22-year-old has thrived skating on an all-former Czechoslovakia line, with Petr Prucha and Radim Vrbata. He's a 6-5, 210-pound center who was a former first-round pick in 2005, which speaks to his upside. It's encouraging that Hanzal has shown good defensive awareness; he's plus-4 with 5 assists in his last 6 games.
Josh Bailey, F, Islanders: This 19-year-old was the 9th overall pick in 2008 and is skating with two other outstanding youngsters: John Tavares and Kyle Okposo. He does however play on a poor Islanders team, so struggles are to be expected. Bailey can play on the left, though right now he's centering.
Cody Franson, D, Predators: Nashville has a terrific track record of drafting and developing blue liners, and it appears this 22-year-old is destined to be a top-four defenseman. He's a 6-4, 205-pounder who gets power-play time despite skating on the third pairing. Franson scored 88 points in 152 AHL games, which indicates he could be a respectable NHL D-man.

In my non-keeper league, I was able to add Franson and Brandon Yip. A 24-year-old who played for Boston University last year, the right wing has filled in well for the injured Milan Hejduk. Yip has 11 points in 15 games. Since I'm out of playoff contention, I wanted to add interesting players -- and Yip qualifies since he's three-quarters Chinese (I'm 100 percent).

Faced with a salary cap, I might not be able to sign more players before season's end, since adding means buying out some veterans. Once I'm done adding, I'll disclose my full watch list.

Next year is now

2010-01-23T00:09:00.000-05:00

In the third year of my dynasty hockey league, I found out what it felt like to really look ahead to next year. In the last two years, I've been trying to strengthen my roster for the postseason. I made the final twice, only to lose.

This year, my team ranked 4th out of 6 in my conference when the top 3 make the playoffs. At 7-8 and one game behind the third-place team, I had to try to forecast how the remainder of the season would turn out. Given that the top two point-scoring teams are in my conference, the chances of representing the Campbell in the final looked remote.

Fortunately for me, I had three players on the last year of their two-year contracts who would be attractive to teams trying to make a push. The players in question -- Mikko Koivu, Christian Ehrhoff and Kyle Quincey -- were at below-market prices, but would be costly to re-sign, even with a hometown discount in free agency.

My goal was to acquire good, young talent and position myself for a playoff run next year. I was able to land both my targets: Brandon Dubinsky (the subject of my first very post here) and David Backes. I took on a bloated contract in Slava Kozlov, whom I will buy out, in order to make the Dubinsky deal work, but I got two youngsters at very reasonable salaries for next year.

Now the next task is to buy out more bad contracts and add more young players. Our weekly waivers run Monday, so I'll report on players whom I hopefully added and others on my radar screen.

Playing out the string

2010-01-20T11:08:00.000-05:00

For the first time since the Bare Naked Hockey League (the one with my high school buddies from Dracut) went to a head-to-head/playoff format, I'll miss the postseason. With six weeks left to our regular season, I'm left playing spoiler. Even though I'm last out of 12 teams, I thought I had a chance at the 7th and last playoff position, but then I remembered that's based on points scored and not record (which is the basis of the top six spots).

As far as looking to next year, we're allowed to keep up to two players for the following season and there's not much suspense there. I'll likely keep Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar, who are the #5 and #9 forwards in our scoring system.

Also in contention are Shea Weber, Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk. Weber warrants serious consideration since he is my top defenseman. He checks in as the No. 10, and his 246 points is 4 ahead of Datsyuk, my disappointing first-round pick, and 24 behind Sedin, my #4 skater.

My Achilles' heel this season was definitely my goaltending. Steve Mason sunk me as the #33 goalie this season as my fifth-round pick, while Tim Thomas, my third-round draft pick, has underperformed as the #17 goalie. Jon Quick, my reserve-round goalie, ranks 10th at the position, but hasn't proven himself to the point where he'd be in keeper territory (a la Brodeur or a Luongo).

I'll have an update on my dynasty league, including the breakdown of a trade.

Fantasy pets

2010-01-14T20:56:00.004-05:00

The term 'fantasy pet' is used to describe fantasy owners' favorite players who always seem to end up on their rosters.

For me in hockey, that player has always been Alexei Kovalev. As a Rangers fan, I fell in love with his high-end talent. Even as he frustratingly showed only flashes of brilliance, I stuck with his potential. I likened my affection for him with my friend Adam's stubborn faith in Oliver Perez, an underachieving pitcher: we stick with these players because we see a little bit of ourselves in them. Their ability raises people's expectations, yet it's difficult to reach that high level of consistency.

I was rewarded with some fantastic seasons from Kovalev's time with the Penguins and later the Canadiens. For the record, Kovy has scored just over a point per game in nearly 1,200 NHL games in a 16-year career.

In my non-keeper league this year, however, I finally cut bait on Kovalev. At 4-10 and in last place of a 12-team league, I had to give up potential for production. It appears unlikely that Kovalev will be able to turn up his production (29 points in 44 games), considering the Senators' injuries to the likes of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek.

On the other hand, I've rostered Milan Lucic on my keeper league. The tough guy's offensive upside is limited (he'll probably put up 50-something points in a career year), but I simply love watching him play. I decided that I needed him on my team because if I was going to root for him in real life, I might as well try to get something out of him, fantasy-wise.

Conversely, there's such a thing as fantasy hate. For years I tried to avoid rostering Canadiens -- with Kovalev being the exception. As a Red Sox fan, I've tried to avoid Yankees, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Especially in a shallow player pool like my AL-only auction league, over the years I couldn't pass up bargain prices on Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams, among the most notable.

But one of the great things about fantasy sports that it helps break down barriers. It's easy for the non-fantasy fan to hate, but fantasy is about performance. And if a Canadien or a Yankee can help me win a title or finish in the money, welcome!

New year

2010-01-04T22:27:00.002-05:00

I've never been one to make New Year's resolutions; why wait for a change in the calendar in order to effect change? And certainly the way my fantasy hockey seasons have gone, I could use a change.

Instead, I'm taking the opportunity to write about how thankful I am for the role that fantasy sports plays in my life. Namely, friendships. There are a number of 'fantasy' friends whom I've never met in person, but whom I'd be more comfortable around than other guys I've known for years. It's helped strengthened the bond with my best friend, Bill. It's helped me stay connected with my high school friends, as difficult as it may be to do with so many years and miles between us.

In a busy, demanding life that involves raising my two children, I have little time for hobbies. Fantasy sports has always been mine. I can still remember tracking my hockey team after the death of my grandmother in 1995 -- it was the one 'normal' thing that helped me from falling apart. And after my dad passed away unexpectedly a little more than two years ago, checking my player updates in baseball and football was among the little things that helped me find a sense of normalcy in the terrible aftermath.

So before I start getting really sappy, I'll paraphrasing one of my favorite songs off the Glee Cast albums (shameless plug) and say my life would suck without you.

Make your list (sort of) and check it twice

2009-12-23T16:06:00.001-05:00

One thing that makes it easier while playing in a league with daily transactions is setting your lineup ahead of time. I usually set my hockey lineup for the entire week on Monday. Only last week, I didn't check my lineup after making a move after that.

Last week I put the Bruins' Dennis Wideman on the injured list. The problem was that change reset my lineup before my initial changes (thanks, CBS Sports) and left out a 24-point game from Niklas Backstrom (one goal allowed in a win), a 22-point game from Brad Boyes (three assists) and a 13-point game from Kyle Quincey. The loss of those 59 points would have made the difference in a 6.5-point loss.

That defeat, my third in a row, leaves me in 4th place out of 6 in my conference. At 5-6, I'm one game out of third place, which earns the last playoff spot. As this is a keeper league, a few more losses and I'll have to consider trading for the future instead of for the playoffs.

As for my other hockey league, I've won twice a row. I'm still 3-8 and still in last place, but am out of the last playoff spot by 170 points. The top six teams by record make the playoffs, with the seventh spot going to the remaining team with the most points (the top seed earns a first-round bye).

Goaltending is still a problem and my defensemen seemingly can't get hot at the same time, but my forwards are starting to come around. Daniel Sedin has been brilliant since coming back from injury, and guys like Patrick Kane, David Backes and old favorite Alexei Kovalev have been very good the last two weeks.

It's a full slate of games tonight, but the NHL is off on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Make sure to check those lineups for the rest of the week ... have a merry one.

Start up the hot stove

2009-12-17T00:02:00.001-05:00

While most fantasy owners are focusing on their football, basketball and hockey teams, there's a select few who are thinking baseball.

One of the best things about being in a keeper baseball league is the activity that occurs in the offseason, even in the dead of winter. With four new owners in our 20-team league, there was a dispersal draft that started the last day of November. So for us returning owners, we were able to release players in November instead of waiting until in the spring. Trading has opened, and there are amendments on the table, most notably on balancing the hitting and pitching scoring and stat modifiers.

It should be said that this is a full keeper league that can sometimes be referred to as a 'sim' league, because it is very much a simulation of happens in real-life baseball. We owners have every player under contract and work within a luxury tax/salary cap system.

For example, I just executed a trade that could very well happen in real life. The deal was a simple one-for-one involving two minor leaguers who could break through in 2010. I dealt Cardinals prospects David Freese for Dodgers prospect Joshua Lindblom.

Freese's name might be vaguely familiar; he was arrested this week on driving under the influence. I was surprised an owner inquired about him; it turns out he was trying to trade for his upside of being in the middle of the St. Louis lineup. Last season the third baseman had an impressive .931 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) in 227 minor-league at-bats, as well as an .837 OPS in 31 MLB at-bats (anything over .800 is considered very good). Freese will also turn 27 in April, which is the age that is considered to be the peak year for major leaguers.

So why did I deal him? I sensed an owner who coveted my player and was willing to trade a similarly good prospect. For me, that player was Josh Lindblom, a 6-5, 220-pound right-hander who is said to have a good shot at making the Dodgers as their No. 5 starter or a middle reliever. The 22-year-old had OK numbers as a starter at Double-A last year, but shined in the bullpen in the Triple-A, hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Like with stocks, you want to buy low and sell high while trading. Noah, one of the new owners, felt he was buying low on Freese. I feel like I'm buying low on Lindblom. As always, the proof will come in the numbers.

As for the Red Sox's offseason moves, I'll get to them when the dust appears to settle on Theo Epstein's grand plan. The team doesn't seem to be done remaking the roster yet.

Disappointment ... and relief

2009-12-15T14:23:00.000-05:00

Like probably a great many of you, I'm on the outside looking into my fantasy football playoffs.

I was put out of my misery after the 1 o'clock games on Sunday, when my opponent's three RBs (A.D., Ryan Grant and Jamaal Charles) racked up an amazing 95.1 points. My guys rallied in the later games, so at least I finished with a respectable 131.1 points (my third-best week of the year), but it wasn't enough against James's 152.1.

Because this regular season has been my worst ever (6-7), I was happy just to make the final 8 (out of 12). It's been such an up-and-down season that I found myself at times hating fantasy football -- which happens even when I'm having a good season. The physical nature of football leads to so many injuries, which in turn leads to players sitting out or playing sparingly and backups taking on unsurprisingly prominent roles. That nullifies the logic and reasonable guesses into lineup decisions, and leads to a lot of frustration over three months.

So that's a part of me that will enjoy being simply a Patriots fan and not obsessing over checking my iPhone for updates on Sunday. If you're still in the playoffs, all you pretty much need is lineup advice; there's probably not much in the way of player pickups that you need. There's a part of me that wants to keep tabs on some guys and trends for next year, but that's what fantasy magazines are for.

Playoffs? Playoffs?!

2009-12-12T23:46:00.001-05:00

That's right ... I'm in! Last week I was hoping to play spoiler against someone who was trying to get into the No. 8 and last playoff spot. With a 5-7 record, I held out little hope of keeping my streak of having never missed a fantasy football playoffs.

Lo and behold, I put up 142 points -- the most in my league's Week 13 -- and actually finished with the No. 7 position. A lot of luck came into play, as the No. 8 team crapped out and scored only 71, thereby giving me a 12-point advantage over him in the tiebreaker, as we were among four teams with 6-7 records.

So as topsy turvy as this season has been, we're starting off with a clean slate. As easy as it might be to rely on the tried-and-true adage of 'stick with what got you here', I refuse to give up on playing the matchups. So no more sticking with Marion Barber, he of the disappointing last month, and in comes free-agent pickup Quinton Ganther, the newly anointed starting Redskins' RB who has a nice matchup against a porous Raiders' run defense.

Out goes Kevin Walter, who couldn't capitalize on Owen Daniels' absence, and in comes another free agent pickup in Davone Bess, fresh off his impressive performance against the woeful Patriots' pass defense.

And as much as I should thank Jason Campbell and his 24-point performance last week, I'm turning to Joe Flacco as my QB2. Yes, Flacco has struggled mightily. But the Ravens are home against the Lions -- a matchup that I can't pass up, especially considering that Campbell will be facing an actually decent Raiders pass defense.

While I might have given up on some guys, I can't sit someone like Vincent Jackson, who has slipped to being the No. 11 WR in my league. My alternative is someone like Walter or Justin Fargas, and their upside isn't as great as even an average day for V-Jax. A big day from the Chargers wideout would go a long way toward making the semifinals. Let's keep our fingers crossed ...

A plug for "The League"

2009-12-08T21:46:00.002-05:00

As a fantasy football owner who is in the male 25-44 demographic group, watching "The League" is a hoot. I can't wait to tune in Thursday at 10:30 p.m. on the FX Channel to watch the Season 1 finale, when the episode will center around their fantasy football championship week.

Culled from the show's web site, here's a synopsis of what the show is about:
"Set against the backdrop of a fantasy football league, The League, FX's new original comedy, is about friendship, marriage, parenting, and growing up ... or refusing to grow up. Fantasy football provides an outlet for good-natured competition and camaraderie between friends and colleagues, but that's not always the case. Deception, trickeration, one-upmanship and a win-at-all costs mentality are prevalent in the world of fantasy football and it's no different in The League. The emotional tentacles of fantasy football extend to personal relationships, marriages and the workplace, all fertile ground for comedy."

If you haven't checked out the show before, you can view the previous five episodes online. You don't even need to be a fantasy football geek to appreciate "The League. Even my wife can't watch an episode without laughing hysterically at least once.

Goalie pickups of the week

2009-12-07T14:49:00.002-05:00

If you have to play two goalies per week, you might want to keep an eye on Brian Boucher. Another Brian (Elliott) could be a decent short-term pickup.

The Rhode Island native has the potential to take over as the Flyers' No. 1 goalie. He was signed in the offseason to serve as insurance if Ray Emery flamed out in his return to the NHL. Not only has Emery disappointed, but so hasn't virtually the entire Philly team, which was considered to be a Stanley Cup contender. Now a new coach (Peter Laviolette) is in town, and that could kick-start a talent-laden team that sits 12th of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference.

Reports that Emery has been trying to play through an injury -- and poorly, I might add -- opens the door for Boucher to take over. Boucher sports a 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage, albeit in only 7 out of the Flyers' 26 games. He's given up 3 goals in each of his last two games, but prior to that he had yielded only 5 goals in 4 games.

He's not an option in my keeper league, as the 32-year-old doesn't figure to be a full-time starter past this season -- even if he can capture the job in Philadelphia. But in my other 12-team league, he's starting for me this week, given the continued struggles of Tim Thomas and Steve Mason.

The Flyers have a favorable schedule, with the Canadiens, Islanders, Senators and Devils on top (the middle two games are at home). Those teams' rank in goals per game this year: 29th, 23rd, 14th and 20th. Boucher is slated to get that start tonight at Montreal; it'll be a good sign if Laviolette goes back to him the following night against the Isle.

As for Elliott, he should still draw the majority of the starts for the Senators with Pascal Leclaire still out.

Ottawa's schedule is a favorable one over the next two weeks. This week, the Sens face Montreal, Philadelphia (10th in goals per game) and Carolina (last).

Next Ottawa faces Toronto, Buffalo, New Jersey and Minnesota; those four teams neatly rank 18th, 19th, 20th and 21st in goals per game. Coach Cory Clouston would be wise to start Elliott against the Sabres and Wild; Elliott is 4-0 with a 2.18 GAA at home.

World Cup small talk for the casual fan

2009-12-04T23:16:00.000-05:00

Now that the draw for one of the world's largest and most popular sporting spectacle is done, what do you -- the non-soccer fan -- need to know about the World Cup?

More people than you think care about this tournament. Basically anybody who speaks English with an accent or has an ethnic-sounding last name has some rooting interest; and if they're not a fan, you can bet someone close to them is.

Given that most readers aren't hard-core followers, here are some nuggets for the watercooler:

How did the U.S. fare? Two words: Great draw. England is in the same group, but we avoided tough 'name' teams with Algeria and Slovenia, both of whom had to win a two-leg playoff in order to get the 32-team World Cup finals. Winning the group could mean a nice path to the semifinals.

What about those cheaters? Ah yes, the French. A missed handball call allowed France to score a goal that vanquished the Irish in their playoffs. Bad karma did not prevent the French from getting a favorable draw, one that includes the weak host nation (South Africa).

What about the `Group of Death'? This is the term used to describe the most difficult group of four teams; there are eight in the tournament. The consensus is that Group G is this year's winner. Brazil, always a perennial tournament favorite and top-ranked team in the FIFA rankings, was drawn with a talented Portugal team and Ivory Coast, arguably the best African side. The third-place team in this group was a good bet to advance to the second round (the two teams in group play move on) in any other group.

For the serious soccer fan, there will be more analysis as the start of the tournament draws closer in June.

Is it time to sell low?

2009-12-01T01:05:00.001-05:00

As the owner of Tim Thomas and Steve Mason, I'm one frustrated fantasy hockey owner. When your second- and fifth-round draft picks are flops after the first two months, it can explain a lot of your struggles.

Recently I had to evaluate how low I was on that duo when a fellow owner was looking for a goalie. I was trying to peddle Brian Elliott, who will be the Senators' starter after a freak injury to Pascal Leclaire. While I didn't expect Doug (who also owns Leclaire) to bite on trading John-Michael Liles, who just came back from an injury, straight up for Elliott, I didn't expect that he'd inquire about Thomas or S.Mason.

Our 12-team league scoring system has evolved over the last 15 years to the point where goalie losses are not penalized; at least we haven't eliminated goalies entirely (it was actually discussed, albeit briefly) or gone to starting only one. Not surprisingly goalies have been among league's leading scorers the last several years, and thus my draft strategy involving Thomas and S.Mason.

Understand that my team is mired in last place, both in record (1-7) and points scored. If I have any chance of getting into the playoffs (there is, after all, two-thirds of the season left), I'll need strong goaltending. So I decided to keep the upside of my goalies over improving my defense corps; Doug, to his credit, was willing to discuss Liles and Sergei Gonchar. Maybe if he could have included a decent goalie in the deal (Jon Quick is the other goalie on my roster), I would have considered the proposal further.

In general it's hard to sell low, with getting proper value being the most difficult thing to gauge. As I've posted previously, try to stick with your studs and give them a chance to come through. Here's hoping I'm right in this case.

Thanksgiving scores

2009-11-26T14:36:00.002-05:00

Final scores, with my picks in bold:

Abington 20, Whitman-Hanson 0

Archbishop Williams 14, Cardinal Spellman 10: One game I'm happy to lose. Little-known fact: Cardinals coach Ron St. George's daughter, Shivonne, helped lead Archies to a state hoop title.

BC High 28, Catholic Memorial 17: Xaverian won, so there went the Eagles' chances for a share of the Catholic Conference.

Braintree 10, Milton 7

Bridgewater-Raynham 29, Randolph 7: Here's a suggestion: the Blue Devils should play nearby Holbrook/Avon on Thanksgiving ... now that'd be a competitive game for both.

Bristol-Plymouth 20, Blue Hills 6

Duxbury 17, Marshfield 7: Gee, the Rams have problems stopping a team in a spread formation ... again.

East Bridgewater 28, Rockland 7: Justin DeAndrade did look good in the one game I saw him.

Hanover 37, Norwell 22: Too much Brett Wheeler. Norwell's Achilles' heel was slowing down big-play backs.

Hingham 30, Scituate 7: Those Harbormen play some tough 'D' under their coordinator, WNEC Athletic Hall of Famer Brian Kelliher.

Hull 15, Cohasset 7: Good for coach Jerry McGrath. Dan Shea was one of the better players I saw in the South Shore League this year.

North Quincy 21, Quincy 6: Finally, the streak is over. Nice job by coordinator Dom Barbuto's defense.

Plymouth South 14, Plymouth North 12

Silver Lake 15, Pembroke 0

Southeastern 14, South Shore Votech 8

Walpole 37, Weymouth 18: Too much Ryan Izzo.

I'm glad I wasn't in an office pool this year; surely 8-8 would not have won.

Thanksgiving football

2009-11-25T19:52:00.004-05:00

For the last several years, the sports department has had an office pick'em to help pass the time during our deadline-crazed Friday nights. While I won my fair share of Friday Night Frenzys, I never won the one for the Thanksgiving games. Let's see how I fare in forecasting tomorrow's games (winners in bold):

Archbishop Williams at Cardinal Spellman: I'd love to go with Bill Kinsherf's team, but Archies isn't trending the right way. The Bishops are 0-4 in league play, while the Cardinals are 3-1 against those same teams.

Braintree at Milton: Good reporting from my successor as the high school sports coordinator, Eric McHugh, about All-Scholastic Joe Donovan being able to return from injury. He should provide the difference like he did in last year's game.

North Quincy at Quincy: Last year North had the better record and frankly choked. It's been a disappointing season for both, but I like the Red Raiders to finally break their skid.

Hanover at Norwell: Look for the Clippers to come up with a big play or two in a close game.

Weymouth at Walpole: I'd like the Wildcats more if they were at home, but at least my hometown pick is justified by the return of P.J. Bonarrigo to bolster an already strong running attack.

Hingham at Scituate: The Sailors won't lack motivation, coming off their crushing OT loss to Duxbury and with the Harbormen winning the last six in this series.

Marshfield at Duxbury: Lots of intrigue in this game, with both meeting in next Tuesday's EMass D2A playoff game. In some years Marshfield's torn-up field has hampered their run-based offense; that won't be the case on Duxbury's artificial turf.

Rockland at East Bridgewater: I witnessed the Vikings' porous defense against Norwell, and I've got to believe the playoff-bound Bulldogs will take advantage.

Whitman-Hanson at Abington: The Green Wave seniors missed the playoffs; they surely won't want to be the first AHS team to lose on Thanksgiving in a while.

Bridgewater-Raynham at Randolph: The Blue Devils have got to find a more appropriate opponent; the Trojans are one of the biggest schools in the area.

Silver Lake at Pembroke: Not even the presence of Bob Bancroft can turn the Titans around in this series ... though give him a few years.

Plymouth North at Plymouth South: When in doubt, I don't pick against a Bill Burkhead team.

BC High at Catholic Memorial: I like the fact that the Eagles have fared better among their common opponents.

Cohasset at Hull: The Pirates have beaten one team with a winning record; that won't do against the playoff-bound Skippers.

South Shore Votech at Southeastern: The Vikings haven't had the horses to thrive in their wishbone-run attack.

Bristol-Plymouth at Blue Hills: The host Warriors have won three straight, but the playoff-bound Craftsmen are markedly better than those foes.

For more on these games, check out the Ledger's Thanksgiving special section on the newsstands Wednesday. Happy Thanksgiving!

Factor in the matchups

2009-11-24T13:55:00.003-05:00

There are times when you should pick up a guy who's going to be a starter, but most of the time you're adding guys who might help you over the long term.

Last week it was guys like Bernard Scott, Jason Snelling and Justin Forsett who were the hot pickups. This week it'll be Rock Cartwright, but outside the Redskins' new top RB, it's slim pickings. What should you do? Try targeting guys who might help you in the fantasy playoffs, which starts Week 14 for most leagues.

Again, this will depend on how deep your league is. For me, I looked at the matchups and saw Brandon Pettigrew has some nice matchups. Of course the Lions' tight end did virtually nothing in a favorable matchup against the Vikings, but did come through last week against the Browns. The Cardinals' defense is another nice play in the final few weeks. The Vikings and Seahawks will be facing some weaker-than-average defenses.

So definitely factor the remaining matchups as your trade deadline approaches. For those in keeper leagues and might be out of the playoff spot, consider trading for next year. Good luck ...

Fantasy indeed

2009-11-23T13:53:00.003-05:00

As a married father to two young children, NFL games aren't near the top of my priority list on Sundays. There are family commitments and outings, though I'm fortunate to have an iPhone to keep track of my fantasy players.

Last Sunday, however, was a dream come true. A getaway with one of my best friends, sleeping in, leisurely brunch ... and several hours at a sports bar. It was nachos and drinks in front of seven games (an eighth was in a different part of the establishment and out of my view).

It was great to sit in the midst of hard-core fans who were sporting jerseys and gear from the Vikings, Cowboys, Ravens, Colts, Redskins and even Browns. It was clear that there were several other hard-core fantasy owners who were swiveling their heads as much as I was from game to game. And it's far more enjoyable to be able to watch the game, as oppose to checking my in-game boxscore.

The only bummer was that we missed the Pats game, as my buddy and I had to return to our families. So the next time I get an invitation to go over a friend's house on a Sunday, I think I'll have to redirect to the local sports bar.

I told me so

2009-11-20T21:55:00.003-05:00

Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of handcuffing your top players. I scoffed at the notion of picking up Bernard Scott as a handcuff to Cedric Benson. One hip injury later, I am regretting not following my own advice.

The thinking was that Justin Fargas would likely outscore Scott, even if Benson was out with an injury. What I neglected to factor in was that the Bengals' offensive line has been good this year, and that Scott (and now even perhaps Larry Johnson) could still be a viable fantasy starter. Add to the fact that Darren McFadden is back from injury and turned the Raiders' running attack into a three-headed monster (Michael Bush surprisingly led them in rushing last week), and I'm in a sticky situation this week. Fargas, ironically, faces Benson's Bengals, who have given up the fifth-fewest points to opposing RBs.

So what to do? I missed out on Scott based on my waiver priority, as well as on the replacements for the injured Michael Turner (Jason Snelling) and Julius Jones (Justin Forsett). Rashard Mendenhall gets elevated to my RB2 spot behind Marion Barber, leaving me to fill my RB/WR flex.

If I learned anything, it's to go after the replacement of a player who's going to be out. After learning that Dwayne Bowe was going to be suspended for 4 weeks, I jumped on Lance Long. Here's a receiver whom I was considering picking up the previous week. Long is a slot receiver in the mold of Wes Welker and whom Matt Cassel has stated he likes as a target.

As for my matchup-based free-agent pickups, I'll postpone that in time for next week's waivers (sorry, work calls).

Hockey's quarter pole

2009-11-16T23:59:00.004-05:00

Sample size is always an issue when trying to determine whether a free agent is worthy of being added, especially in leagues when there's a cap on the number of transactions. Granted, lines and pairings can still be changed, but after 20 games, fantasy hockey owners should have reasonable data to make a good decision.

I'm in two 12-team leagues but since one is a dynasty format (contracts, minors) and the other a limited keeper (3 per year), it's rare when I'm picking up the same type of players. Lo and behold, I was able to add the same three players over the last week:

Tomas Fleischmann, LW, Capitals: Some might have shied away from this German because of Alexander Ovechkin's impending return, but this 25-year-old has high-end talent (2nd round pick, 2004). Conversly some might have been suckered by the 'news' that Ovie was going to be out 4-5 weeks; it turns out he was pulling the leg on a Yahoo! Sports reporter. Even with an impending return to the second line shouldn't dent his value; he should continue getting power-play time (maybe even with Ovie) and the Caps have a decent second-line center in Brendan Morrison.
Nicklas Bergfors, RW, Devils: Here's a Swede who's coming off a solid season in the American Hockey League and finally got a chance to skate on the first line. There's a big difference in a 22-year-old like Bergfors putting up 51 points in 66 AHL games and an over-the-hill, end-of-the-bench type. Bergfors, who was taken 23rd overall in the '04 draft, has produced while skating with Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, as well as on a makeshift third line last Saturday against Fleischmann's Caps.
Mason Raymond, LW, Canucks: This 23-year-old was thought to be a flash-in-the-pan because he drew first-line duty due to Daniel Sedin's injury. But even if Sedin returns late this week, Raymond should be a solid producer, thanks to the continuing emergence of Ryan Kesler at second-line center and an underrated Alexandre Burrows at right wing.

I'm hoping this trio can keep my good fortune going in hockey. I finally won for the first time in my non-dynasty league and, like in my win in my keeper league, ranked among the top half of teams in terms of points scored.

It was almost a perfect fantasy weekend, but my football team was victim of some tough matchups. There's nothing you can do it when your studs are facing stiff defenses and on the road, too (Ced Benson at Pittsburgh, though he left due to injury; Rashard Mendenhall vs. Bengals; Marion Barber at Green Bay, though his injured thumb hampered his play). All that added up to the fewest points scored this week.

More later this week about factoring matchups when it comes to adding free agents in football, especially after the end of the bye-week period.

High schools: Weekend update

2009-11-13T09:51:00.003-05:00

Friday the 13th might be considered unlucky for some, but a select few local high school teams are fortunate to still be playing. It should be noted that almost all Saturday matches have been postponed to Sunday due to the impending wet weather. Let's see how I fared in my predictions and thoughts earlier this week before the South Sectional soccer tournaments started.

In Division 1 boys soccer, Weymouth had the bad luck of being drawn with Catholic Memorial, out of the strong Catholic Conference. If the Wildcats were not edged by a goal by CM, it could have easily been Weymouth who advanced to the semifinals, as the weakest top-4 seed in the field (Greater New Bedford) lost by 3 goals to CM.

It should be said at this point that I think the seeding system in Eastern Massachusetts is deeply flawed. The Western Mass. tournament is much better organized, thanks to the thankless work by the late tournament director Tom Ford, who used the Walker method that took into account strength of schedule, instead of strictly using winning percentage.

Take a look, for example, at the Division 2 girls bracket. Only two of the top four seeds made it to the semis. Duxbury, a No. 7 seed and the defending state champion, should have been considered one of the favorites and should not have been a surprise to make it this far. The Dragons get No. 3 Canton, albeit on CHS's Memorial Field as part of a boys/girls doubleheader.

Back to the boys, but staying in D2: Canton and Duxbury are in opposite sides of the bracket as semifinalists, with my prediction of Hingham breaking through falling short. Canton's successful defense-first culture under coach Danny Erickson trumped the Harbormen's firepower.

It should be said that the sites for the semis and finals are mostly predetermined before the tournament starts after schools make their fields available to tournament directors. It may seem Canton has received an unfair advantage, as was said about Weymouth and Whitman-Hanson in recent years, but tournament directors don't have as many choices as people think. Schools don't receive any gate receipts and have to provide security and personnel; the tradeoff, of course, is that their teams might get to play on their home field.

Hanover, one of my stronger bets in the tournament as a semifinalist in D3 boys, has proven me right so far. Possibly awaiting them in the final is Archbishop Williams, which has surprised me and everybody else by making it to the final four. To be fair, Archies had to get past two schools with inferior schedules, but did edge past a South Shore League team (Mashpee) in penalties.

Similarly in D1 girls, Whitman-Hanson has made the semis as I thought. But my faith in the Norwell girls was shattered as the Clippers fell in D3 semis. I thought Norwell had the skill to overcome its traditionally average schedule, but Millis was toughened by playing bigger schools in the Tri-Valley League.

As for the other sports, good luck to the Quincy and Sacred Heart girls volleyball teams. I didn't blog about v-ball since those tournaments had already started. Nice to see the Presidents bounce back strong from a .500 season a year ago. Saints coach Rob Slavin is still one of the nicest guys in the business. Another old reliable, Canton field hockey, has made it into the D2 semis.

And most of all, good luck to the hundreds of cross country runners who will run at Franklin Park in Boston at the Eastern Mass. championships -- regardless of the weather on Saturday. They'll get a chance to prove they are some of the toughest athletes in high school athletics.

Handcuffing

2009-11-10T21:13:00.004-05:00

For the last six weeks, most fantasy football owners have been picking up players mainly for replacing a player on a bye. Now that we're heading into the final bye week, owners need to change their approach.

At this point in the season, the available players are unlikely to be a factor in the remainder of your season. So if you're not looking for a starter, you should be looking for bench depth in the form of a handcuff, which refers to owning the backup to one of your top players.

Realize that not every backup is appropriate handcuff. As an owner of Cedric Benson, the No. 5 RB this season, I am not interested in Bernard Scott, who has a mere 16 carries this season. Scott is a rookie who has no track record of success. In thinking ahead to a worse-case scenario where Benson would get hurt, I accepted a trade for Rashard Mendenhall, whom I'd rather start than Scott if he was going to be the Bengals' starting RB.

But as an owner of Marion Barber, I am keeping Tashard Choice on my bench. Barber has had to deal with injuries to his quadriceps and thumb, and missed the Cowboys' Week 3 matchup against Carolina. Choice, who filled in well for an injured MB3 late last season, produced double-digit fantasy points from Weeks 3-5.

Another good handcuff is Matt Leinart. When I kept Kurt Warner from last year's roster, I was aware of his injury history. I decided to pick up Leinart in preseason -- an unusual move, but I thought a wise one given that we start two QBs in my 12-team league. If Leinart took over, he would be an automatic pickup and a likely above-average QB. However once I traded Warner, the need to own Leinart disappeared. I'd rather have a replacement for my own guy, rather someone else's.

A hot pickup this week is sure to be Ladell Betts. Given Clinton Portis's injury history and declining performance, Betts probably should have already been handcuffed. Granted, Portis is out next week due to a concussion and not due to his ankle and calf injuries, but Betts would have been more valuable to that Portis owner than a running-back-by-committee guy like Justin Fargas. Now I own Fargas, mostly because I think he could be a flex play, but the upside of Betts as the Redskins' No. 1 RB is higher than Fargas's, especially since Darren McFadden should return this week and split carries.

If a good handcuff is already on someone's roster, try to get that owner to throw him as an afterthought into a deal. Letting him know that you really want that player will deteriorate your negotiating and bargaining power.

Two out of three ain't bad

2009-11-10T00:13:00.005-05:00

I have a friend who is a huge sports fan, yet who would prefer if fantasy sports never existed. He was watching the Steelers/Broncos Monday night game from the perspective of a Patriot fan. I, on the other hand, was hoping Rashard Mendenhall would get 11 points and that Ben Roethlisberger would get 9 for my buddy Bill.

Admittedly I was an underdog to win, given that the Broncos had the No. 8 fantasy run defense (and No. 3 in real life). Yet I had my win wrapped up in the third quarter, while Bill sweated out most of the fourth quarter until Big Ben threw a 7-yard completion to keep a drive alive. The last-minute TD only made a 'W' seem not as close as it actually was.

I continue to be snakebitten in my non-dynasty hockey league, scoring the fourth-most points but only to lose to the #1 team last week. In my dynasty league, I held a slight lead for most of the week and maintained throughout. That's a daily transactions nleague, but I didn't have much wiggle room with injuries to Daniel Briere and Shawn Horcoff.

Back to football: I nearly ate crow on my first trade, as my opponent was livin' large on Kurt Warner's 5 TDs and 37 fantasy points. Roddy White, meanwhile, didn't find the end zone. Mendenhall obviously redeemed me from my second big trade, with Calvin Johnson nearly matching Roddy's numbers.

All this means I've moved into a first-place tie with a 5-4 record. If the season were to end today, I'd be the division winner, since I've got the most points among the three. It's so much more enjoyable checking my usual fantasy research sites coming off some Ws.

Boys soccer: MIAA South Sectionals

2009-11-07T11:03:00.004-05:00

As promised, I'd blog occasionally about high school sports in Ledgerland. Even though I've been on top of the scene the last nine years as the high school sports coordinator (until February), I haven't been in regular contact with the coaches when they've called in their results, so I don't have my usual special insight as the postseason starts today.

But the more things change, some things stay the same. Let's take a look at the brackets and which local might advance the furthest -- and maybe even win.

In Division 1, I'd love to predict a BC High/Weymouth final. The Eagles havd a tougher road to the semis as they'd have to get past No. 4 Brockton, to whom they have lost and tied. Weymouth has the easier road, with its first-round game against Catholic Memorial potentially its toughest. The Wildcats have the weakest top-4 seed in Greater New Bedford in its quarter, so I think they could make the final.

In Division 2, our eyes can't help be drawn to a potential Canton/Hingham quarterfinal. The Bulldogs made it to the semifinals last year with a very strong senior class. The Harbormen have had strong teams, but postseason success has eluded them. I like Hingham to break through, while No. 5 Duxbury has a good chance of making it to the final. A recent 1-nil loss to Hingham should sufficiently motivate the Dragons to be on top of their game.

In Division 3, the Patriot League sides are the one that stand out. With a variety of different schools (Catholics, votechs), the PL schools have the advantage of a tough league schedule. Longtime Hanover coach Jim Sylvia likes to say of the tournament, "It doesn't matter (about the draw). As long as you get there, anything can happen." I like the No. 7 Indians to make the final, with No. 1 Cardinal Spellman as their likely opponent.

Girls soccer: MIAA South Sectionals

2009-11-07T10:32:00.002-05:00

As promised, I'd blog occasionally about high school sports in Ledgerland. Even though I've been on top of the scene the last nine years as the high school sports coordinator (until February), I haven't been in regular contact with the coaches when they've called in their results, so I don't have my usual special insight as the postseason starts today.

But the more things change, some things stay the same. Let's take a look at the brackets and which local might advance the furthest -- and maybe even win.

In Division 1, I have a special place in my heart for Weymouth, whom I followed to the state semifinals last fall. The 'Cats, however, have graduated the heart of that team. It'd be a feat if Coach Mac (as in John MacIntyre) could get his team into the semis. The local team that I'm tipping into the final four is Whitman-Hanson. Sure, Sam Mewis is the talismanic presence in midfield, but the Panthers boast a defense that could push them through.

In Division 2, the Hockomock League champions usually do well in this bracket, which bodes well for No. 3 Canton. In the course of writing this summer about the top club team in the area (the Scorpions U-13s), I figured forward Lauren Berman would make an impact in her freshman year on the Bulldogs. She hasn't disappointed. I'd like the Bulldogs' chances of making the final if Dedham, which plays out of the always-tough Bay State Conference, weren't in their quarter of the draw. As for defending state champion Duxbury, I can't see the Dragons getting as lucky as they did in last year's postseason.

In Division 3, I am trusting my GateHouse South sports editor Ryan Wood, who has been on the Norwell bandwagon all fall. Ryan's a fellow soccer junkie and Chelsea fan, so I trust he knows his stuff. The Clippers have topped his regional rankings for most of the season. A potential pitfall lies with Hanover, with whom they drew 2-2 last Monday, in a potential semifinal. The other side of the bracket should not offer much resistance.

There's always next year ...

2009-11-05T09:46:00.004-05:00

The title is not a reference to your title chances in fantasy football. It's about your league's rules and settings.

Assuming you've got a commissioner who's willing to listen about improvements, this is the perfect time to think about things you'd like to change.

In my league, we've got a healthy thread on our message board full of suggestions. It was started by me after Eddie Royal scored two return touchdowns -- and I, as a Royal owner, did not get credit for them because special teams touchdowns were rolled in with defenses. Granted, I should have known that, but I felt annoyed enough to fire off a rant on the league board that also included something on defensive TDs not being worth enough.

Soon, people chimed in with some good ideas: adjusting the points awarded for yards, adding points for first downs, adding IDPs (individual defensive players) and adding a nominal amount for return yards.

This is also the time when commishes should be on owners who haven't paid the league dues as we're at the midway point. Trying to collect after the season is over is very difficult -- my football league nearly dissolved after a fill-in commish botched the money situation and the winner didn't get all his money.

In my league, the worst teams have a 3-5 record and the best has a 6-2 mark, so no team is out of the playoff race (the top 8 teams qualify). This parity has kept all the owners involved, so they shouldn't jeopardize a playoff spot by not paying up.

Losing swagger

2009-11-03T00:51:00.005-05:00

For the better part of 10 years, you didn't want to face one of my teams. Whether it was football, hockey or baseball, my teams haven't just been in the top half of the league standings -- they've been at the top or just off it.

Not this year.

In my hockey league with my hometown buddies, I'm 0-4 and a half-point away from the fewest scored. The tie that I thought I had turned out to be a 'L' after an apparent scoring change.

In my keeper hockey league, I'm 2-2 and 4th in points scored (out of 12).

In football, I'm 4-4 and in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored.

After a long track record of finishing in the money, I don't think for a minute that I might have lucked out all these years. But still, it's astonishing to have such an autumn of discontent.

Luck -- or rather, lack of it -- has something to do with it. In one hockey league, the owner with the most points scored didn't even draft his team (two fellow owners drafted for him). In both hockey leagues, I've been snake-bitten by poor goaltending and injuries.

It's said that things even themselves out in the end. And we're only one-sixth through the hockey season. So I'll try to follow my own advice and not panic. That means not making rash trades, cutting bait on my studs, and getting frustrated and apathetic.

Studly or not?

2009-10-30T08:31:00.002-04:00

Frank Lampard is unknown to most of the American sporting public. His name might be a little more familiar when the World Cup soccer finals take place in South Africa next summer. Lampard is a starting midfielder for the English national team who is better known for his play for Chelsea in the English Premier League.

So why should you care? Because 2009 season is remarkably similar to Tom Brady's. And owners of such underperforming first-rounders like Steven Jackson and Steve Slaton should take heed.

Lampard has been remarkably consistent in his production. His goal totals from each of the last three seasons: 11, 10, 12. His assist totals: 12, 10, 10. It's all the more impressive considering that the 2007-08 campaign was shortened by injury, when he logged only 60% of the minutes from each of the other two full seasons (3,200-plus, or roughly 36 of 38 EPL matches).

From a fantasy perspective, Lampard has been fantasy gold. The official fantasy game through Barclays (the league's sponsor) is a salary-cap game, rather than one in which only one manager in a league can own a player. It's no surprise that Frank's salary was 12.5 million pounds -- tied for the highest with another studly midfielder, Steven Gerrard of Liverpool.

But Lamps endured the worst start of his career, tallying only 1 goal and 5 assists through 9 matches. New coach Carlo Ancelotti's new diamond formation, which placed Frank at an outside midfield position rather than in a more central role, was a huge factor, yet the player himself said it was a matter of time before he began converting his chances.

Sure enough, last Saturday, he did. In a 5-0 thrashing of Blackburn, Lampard knocked in 2 goals. It should be stated that even though this slump was unprecedented for him, Lamps still ranked second in points among midfielders.

So what can be learned? Trust your studs. They have reached that plateau through years of consistency and will eventually come around.

Take a look at Tom Brady. For the first five weeks of the season, he had looked a shell of his glory days. Then came the Titans and their porous pass defense. Six touchdowns and a season-high 380 yards later, plus another solid game against the Buccaneers, put Brady at #12 in my league's scoring format (#5 among QBs).

Now there comes a time when owners have to take a hard look at their underperforming studs. Matt Forte was a near unianimous first-rounder: an RB who was a factor in the passing game and who had no viable challenger to him for touches. Yet as we roll into Week 8, Forte ranks only 27th among RBs in my league and 69th overall. Forte's yards-per-carry is lower than last year (3.5 to 3.9), but a huge difference is scoring only 1 TD, which is far off the pace from duplicating 12 from a year ago.

Given that nearly half the season is over, it might be time to trade Forte. But beware.

Like I posted earlier, I had a fellow owner who had had enough of Roddy White, a unanimous top-10 WR this season. After disappointing for the first three weeks, White came off his bye and produced a monster 210-yard, 2-TD performance. Mike couldn't sell fast enough, proposing a trade for Kurt Warner (he had poor JaMarcus Russell as his QB2).

How's that trade working out? White has scored 12.2 and 12.8 in back-to-back weeks, while Warner has scored 21 points during the same span. Given that we start two QBs, it could be said that Warner is more valuable than White. But I like White as someone in his prime (we can keep three players) and was worried about Warner's injury/health history.

White's re-emergence allowed me to trade Calvin Johnson and get a solid RB in Rashard Mendenhall. It's been a win-win so far -- which is how I like my trades best. It's up to you as a fantasy owner to know when to hold on and when to cut bait.

Anatomy of a trade

2009-10-27T18:47:00.005-04:00

I was going to blog later this week about what to do underperforming studs. One fellow football owner helped solve my problem by proposing a trade for him.

The player in question is Calvin Johnson. He proposed a 1-for-1 deal, with him sending Rashard Mendenhall. I accepted.

Like most trades, this deal was made from having excess at a position. I had two WRs (Vincent Jackson and Roddy White) who were outperforming 'Megatron'. Steve had an excess at RBs (Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas and Tim Hightower), but did not have someone with WR1 talent (Donald Driver comes the closest for him).

Wide receivers are coveted in our 12-team league because we have two flex positions (RB/WR and WR/TE), and we reward each reception with 0.3 points. While I have Cedric Benson and the Cowboys' duo of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice, I've been looking to add a quality RB. I worry slightly about Benson's ability to hold up under what will be his most touches in a season and more about Barber's effectiveness due to his quad injury. Given the depth of the league and the quality of the owners, I've been unable to find someone on the waiver wire (I've had a fairly low priority based on my record and points scored).

So why make the deal? Johnson's hip and knee injuries have me worried; he's not a sure thing to play this week, even coming off a bye week. And of course, Johnson plays for the Lions. I've got a decent set of lesser WRs that I can use in my other flex (Nate Washington, Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan), and it's easier to find a WR to use in a matchup play than a RB.

Mendenhall is not without issues. He is on bye this week, though I wasn't confident of starting Johnson in one of my flex spots anyways. The second-year back has had to deal with a knee injury and has fumbled twice in two weeks. And the traditional run-heavy Steelers have been passing more this season.

Still, when in doubt, I tend to pull the trigger on a trade. Making a deal sends a signal to other owners that you're open to moving players (this will be my league-high third trade) and, like I've posted before, it's just more fun trading. In this case, I think it's a win-win for both.

Do you believe in karma?

2009-10-26T13:53:00.007-04:00

I'm feeling pretty chipper this Monday, especially after taking 3 Ls seven days ago.

I finally won for the first time this season in my keeper hockey league, but it's the tie in my other league that has me pumped. I trailed the entire week and entered Sunday, down 191.3 to 210.6. I knew the second-to-last game of the night, between the Blue Jackets and Kings, was going to decide the matchup. When I started watching early in the second period, things looked dire. My supposedly stud goalie, Steve Mason, had already given up two goals. The only consolation was that I had three Kings.

I was tempted to switch to the ALCS or Sunday night football, or even the Canucks/Oilers game that started one hour later, but I held out hope. Sure enough, my two LA forwards, Anze Kopitar and Alex Frolov, started to score -- albeit against Mason -- and at even strength, meaning at least they were getting plus points instead of zero or minus, along with D-man Jack Johnson.

I wound up watching the rest of the late game, but did not want to add up the fantasy points prematurely since scoring decisions can be changed. Now I know I had absolutely nothing to do with those Kings players doing what they did, but still it's fun to root, to hope and to believe, right? If I had turned away from that game in disgust and woke up this morning to find out that I had pulled out a tie, I wouldn't have felt as good about myself as I do now.

The tie puts me at 0-2-1. I'm still second-to-last in points, so I've got a lot of work cut out. But this tie at least provides a good story to tell -- especially the next time I see my opponent (and friend), Brian.

My win in fantasy football was nothing to brag about; my friend Paul had both his starting QBs on bye and there were no replacements available on the waiver wire (it's a 12-team league in which we start 2). Barring anything outrageous in tonight's Redskins/Eagles game, I'll be 4-3 and in a four-way tie for first place in my division (the top four teams go to the playoffs).

Later this week: I'll use an example from my fantasy soccer league that might aid you in fantasy football.

Draft advice

2009-10-20T23:26:00.004-04:00

We're coming up on the final weekend of the NBA preseason, which means it's two big days for fantasy NBA drafts.

I won't attempt to pass any advice to you, hoop-wise, since I don't follow the league closely. What I can offer is draft advice.

I do consider myself an expert on drafting. I can hardly pass up an offer to do a draft; that's how I got into joining a fantasy hoops league two years ago. (I also tried getting KG, Pierce and Ray Allen on the same team, which didn't happen.)

Here are some tips, no matter which fantasy sport you might be drafting for:

Know your league -- as in rules, scoring and owners. I always find it amazing when a owner comes out of a draft and says something to the effect of 'I didn't know that was a category' or 'I didn't know we needed 'X' number of 'Y' players at that position'. I mean, that should affect the valuation you put on players. For example, my fantasy football league has two flex spots in which a WR can fill both. Given that it's a slight PPR league (0.3 point per catch, instead of the standard 1), it pays to load up on receivers.
Make a list of players you want. Don't be that guy holding up your draft because you're flipping through your fantasy mag or furiously Googling for news. Chances are your last-minute find won't pan out as well as the player that you should have researched beforehand. You don't want to miss on your first few picks; get those right. Making a list comes in handy late in the draft of a deep league (usually 12 or more owners).
Be aware the way your draft applet lists available players. I've used the big fantasy sites like CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo!, and all of them list, by default, players according to their ranking, which probably won't help you, unless you're using a very vanilla, standard-like scoring system. You're likely to have a few owners who don't know the league rules/scoring that well and didn't do their research, so they're taking the proverbial 'best player available' -- according to your site's rankings. Fill up your draft queue with your draft targets, but don't take them too soon if they're not likely to be taken. In hockey, I was able to get Blues defenseman Erik Johnson late in my draft; he missed all of last season due to a preseason injury but is a former high first-rounder with upside.
Keep track of your opponents' rosters. This sort of gets back to Point #1: know your owners and who their 'pets' might be. Be aware of what positions they've filled and what positions they might be going after.

And remember, this is fantasy sports. It's not life and death. If you want your favorite player or load up on guys on your favorite team, go for it.

Monday morning blues

2009-10-19T12:20:00.003-04:00

I've had better Mondays, fantasy-wise.

Both my fantasy hockey teams lost, dropping me to 0-2 in each league. My fantasy football team, after starting off 3-0, is slated to lose a third straight week.

In my full-contract, keeper hockey league, I rank 5th out of 12 teams in points. I was unlucky in Week 1 to be matched up with the #1 team in points; I was #2, losing by 45.

In my other hockey league (limited keeper; only 2 per year), things are more dismal. I rank 10th out of 12 teams, with injuries to Daniel Sedin and Pavel Datsyuk (my first-round draft pick) not helping.

My standing in my football league is still to be determined since I've got Vincent Jackson and Eddie Royal going tonight, but I think I'll still finish with the fewest points this week.

So what to do?

I'm taking solace in fantasy soccer team. I organized a league with seven friends (all with ties to GateHouse Media New England) that covers the English Premier League. After four weeks, I ranked tied for last. I'm happy to say after 9 weeks, I'm in first place by 12 points.

Granted, some of my fellow owners have not been making use of their transfers and managing their team from week to week ... but isn't that the point of fantasy sports? Meanwhile, I was dropping out-of-form players, adding those who were in form and not afraid to bench 'name' players in favor of those who had better matchups.

So it's OK to wallow a bit, but buck up and keep at it. Work the waiver wire, don't be afraid to trade and look at those matchups.

NFL: Consider trading

2009-10-15T19:41:00.004-04:00

It's not ideal to start blogging about any sport in midseason, but good advice is better late than never. As we approach the midway point of the fantasy football season (most regular seasons go through Week 13, since experienced commissioners are wise enough not to use Week 17 at all), here's something to consider, no matter where you are in the standings: Trading.

With only four more weeks to deal with bye weeks, you might be able to strike a deal that you would otherwise couldn't. Case in point: a recent trade in my 12-team league.

After trading Kurt Warner for Roddy White, (I'm already starting Joe Flacco and Tony Romo in a 2-QB league), I realized that I had a hole this week since Romo and the Cowboys are on a bye. Checking the other rosters in my league revealed one owner with a decent QB (Jason Campbell) on his bench with little chance of starting; Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are solidly his starters.

My friend Bill was willing to deal Campbell and get some value for him, whereas if he waited after Week 10, Campbell would likely have netted little back in trade. Even though Big Ben is on bye in Week 8, Bill was willing to take a potential hit to get a TE with upside (Jermichael Finley) and a backup QB (Matt Leinart) who might play in Week 8 given Warner's injury/health history.

If you had told me a week ago I could have traded Warner, Leinart and Finley for Roddy White and Jason Campbell, I would have been ecstatic. And that's what I am, heading into this weekend's action.

NHL: Not too early to add

2009-10-15T19:12:00.003-04:00

The 2009-10 NHL season is not even a month old, yet there are some players who might be on your waiver wire who are worth adding.

Let's take a look at the New York Rangers, who are one of my two favorite teams despite growing up a Bruins fan (that's a story for another time).

Hobey Baker Award winner Matt Gilroy received a lot of preseason buzz for his end-to-end play as an offensive defensemen, while 19-year-old Michael Del Zotto, the team's first-round draft pick in 2008, had a very solid but not as impressive preseason.

I bit on Gilroy, rostering him in both my 12-team leagues. In the season opener against the Penguins, Gilroy was good, while Del Zotto looked a little nervous in his end. But who was on the first power-play unit? Del Zotto.

Through 7 games, Del Zotto has been the Ranger skater (never mind defenseman) who has garnered the most power-play time (4:18). Gilroy, who ranks second in PP time among D-men (2:17), has played 5:10 more at even strength and 1:10 more shorthanded for a total of 19:14 to Del's 14:55, yet Del Zotto is the guy you want now.

For the remainder of the season, however, Gilroy should shape up as the better bet. Del Zotto has accumulated a 2-5-7 line through 7 games, mostly by getting his shot/pass from the point to the net. The likelihood of that success rate continuing is less than Gilroy, who has only 1 assist, finally being rewarded on the scoresheet with his constant forays in joining the rush.

Among forwards, Brandon Dubinsky was not even mentioned much as a sleeper. Here was someone who scored a modest 41 points in 82 games last season. Yet an expected jump in ice time should have portended his 2-4-6 start in 7 games.

Last year the 23-year-old played 2:16 on the PP and 16:38 in all situations. Given John Tortorella's history of giving his top forwards 20-plus minutes on board in Tampa, it should not have been a surprise that Doobs was going to have a career year. He's playing only 25 seconds more on the man-advantage, but he's playing nearly 5 more minutes more overall (21:27).

Dubinsky's absence from training camp during a contract dispute further dampened expectations, but once signed, observers should have figured that he'd center the first line. There was talk of Vinny Prospal taking that spot next to Marian Gaborik, but Prospal did his best work in Tampa as a left wing. The winner: Dubinsky, of course.